125-degree Heat Index Possible In Most Of Texas By 2053, Study Says

The Best of the Tribune in your Inbox

Keep tabs on Texas politics and policy with our morning newsletter.

Sign up Close Search for: Search

• Investigations
• Guides
• About
• Events
• Data
• Newsletters
• Donate

Close Skip to content

About

Corrections and Clarifications

About The Texas Tribune | Staff | Contact | Send a Confidential Tip | Ethics | Republish Our Work | Jobs | Awards | Corrections | Strategic Plan | Downloads | Documents

Our reporting on all platforms will be truthful, transparent and respectful; our facts will be accurate, complete and fairly presented. When we make a mistake — and from time to time, we will — we will work quickly to fully address the error, correcting it within the story, detailing the error on the story page and adding it to this running list of Tribune corrections. If you find an error, email [email protected].

Sign up for The Brief, The Texas Tribune’s daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

Sign up for The Brief, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

Texans can expect a greater annual number of dangerous days of heat — when the heat index crosses 100 degrees — according to a study predicting the ramifications of climate change.

Those living along the eastern and southern border will see the highest temperatures the most days, the study by the First Street Foundation said. The most dire prediction: The heat index will reach 125 degrees at least once per year within the next 30 years in most Texas counties. Heat index is the temperature felt by the human body when relative humidity is combined with the air temperature.

Texas will see more days with a heat index over 100 than 46 other states as more than 13% of Americans are expected to be affected by extreme heat.

The report comes as the Lone Star State grapples with its worst drought in more than a decade. Reservoirs, lakes and rivers are drying up as cities and other public water systems across the state put water restrictions in place. In West Texas, cotton farmers and other agricultural industries are projecting billions of dollars in losses. And in South Texas, multiple counties are preparing for emergencies as the Falcon Dam is nearly out of water.

Related Story

Texas is facing its worst drought since 2011. Here’s what you need to know.

The drought will likely continue into the fall and winter.

Aug. 19, 2022

First Street’s model is based on current temperature readings. Its predictions factor in several data points including proximity to water, elevations, grassland and global greenhouse gas emissions.

Part of what will make Texas so hot is the lack of elevation. The nonprofit noted that bodies of water mixed with cooler temperatures from higher elevation tend to have a protective effect, keeping more extreme temperatures at bay. Since most of the state stands at or near sea level, the lower elevation lends itself to a higher likelihood of extreme temperature increases.

Although Texas has the Gulf of Mexico to its southeast, the state misses out on a potential cooling benefit from a large body of water because major climate patterns do not pass over water before reaching Texas — instead, they move from west to east.

“South and East Texas are definitely the most vulnerable areas in the state,” a spokesperson from the First Street Foundation wrote in an email to The Texas Tribune.

Starr County, located at the border with Mexico along the Rio Grande, tops the list in Texas currently with 109 days each year above 100 degrees. According to the forecast heat index map, the county should not tip into the 125-degree-plus range within the next 30 years, but it is already feeling the impact of current heat waves.

Already, the region is dealing with a higher likelihood of fires. And it is bracing for more property damage, heat radiation, smoke inhalation, and heat-related illnesses and injuries that could directly impact the health of the area’s population, according to a hazard mitigation plan shared by the city governments of Escobares, Rio Grande City, Roma and the Roma school district. In the mostly rural area with a population around 65,000, roads have buckled as the high temperatures destabilize the surface materials.

Rio Grande City, an area that bloomed during the 1930s oil industry boom and the county seat for Starr County, has about 15,000 residents. Mayor Joel Villarreal said the county has been working to add infrastructure improvements to mitigate the impacts from the recent drought, but the project is still in its infancy.

According to the Starr County hazard mitigation plan, agricultural loss, property damage, heat-related illnesses and more are expected as temperatures rise.

Villarreal also indicated that the prolonged heat wave has increased migrant death tolls in the county, another area in which the impacts of climate change are expected to worsen.

Starr County and others like it experiencing extreme heat can expect to continue to have even longer heat waves and hotter temperatures, even if they don’t reach the 125-degree heat index.

“If it’s gonna rise by that much, I don’t think we’re prepared,” Villarreal said. “I don’t think the whole country is prepared.”

The full program is now LIVE for the 2022 Texas Tribune Festival, happening Sept. 22-24 in Austin. Explore the schedule of 100+ mind-expanding conversations coming to TribFest, including the inside track on the 2022 elections and the 2023 legislative session, the state of public and higher ed at this stage in the pandemic, why Texas suburbs are booming, why broadband access matters, the legacy of slavery, what really happened in Uvalde and so much more. See the program.

Learn about The Texas Tribune’s policies, including our partnership with The Trust Project to increase transparency in news.

You've read article this month. You have unlimited free articles remaining because we don't have a paywall.

Texans need the truth. Help us report it.

Independent Texas reporting needs your support. The Texas Tribune delivers fact-based journalism for Texans, by Texans — and our community of members, the readers who donate, make our work possible. Help us bring you and millions of others in-depth news and information. Will you support our nonprofit newsroom with a donation of any amount?

Support Independent Texas News

Become a member. Join today.

Choose an amount or learn more about membership.

$18 $20 $25 Other Donate Now

You've read articles this month. You have unlimited free articles remaining because we don't have a paywall.

Texans need the truth. Help us report it.

Independent Texas reporting needs your support. The Texas Tribune delivers fact-based journalism for Texans, by Texans — and our community of members, the readers who donate, make our work possible. Help us bring you and millions of others in-depth news and information. Will you support our nonprofit newsroom with a donation of any amount?

Support Independent Texas News

Become a member. Join today.

Choose an amount or learn more about membership.

$18 $20 $25 Other Donate Now

Allison P. Erickson

• x

Allison P. Erickson was a reporting fellow at The Texas Tribune, covering military and veterans issues in Texas, from August 2022 through February 2023, under a partnership with Military Veterans in Journalism. Allison... More by Allison P. Erickson

READ MORE

Texas winter storm updates: State hunkers down as dangerous weather continues rolling in

Jan. 24, 2026Jan. 24, 2026, 2:00 p.m. Central

Texas officials say the power grid will hold through winter storm, but local outages are likely

Jan. 21, 2026Jan. 24, 2026, 1:11 p.m. Central

Jasmine Crockett, James Talarico to face off in first debate of Senate Democratic primary

Jan. 24, 2026

Congressman Wesley Hunt draws scrutiny for missed votes amid campaign for U.S. Senate

Jan. 23, 2026

Understanding Texas’ big investment in dementia research

Dec. 22, 2025Jan. 21, 2026, 11:48 a.m. Central January 21, 2026 View More Events

latest from our reporters

After vicious 2024 cycle, Texas House GOP primaries see quieter landscape defined by tort battle

By Kayla Guo Jan. 23, 2026

Removal of LGBTQ+ option from 988 hotline is straining overburdened Texas crisis centers

by Stephen Simpson Jan. 23, 2026

An arctic storm is expected to blanket the state. Here’s what Texans can expect.

By Colleen DeGuzman Jan. 21, 2026Jan. 22, 2026, 9:18 p.m. Central

Texas defends law requiring schools to post Ten Commandments. Here’s what to know.

by Jaden Edison Jan. 20, 2026Jan. 22, 2026, 8:49 p.m. Central

Webb County Sheriff Martin Cuellar, brother of Rep. Henry Cuellar, indicted on federal fraud charges

by Eleanor Klibanoff Jan. 22, 2026

Texas leads the nation in supplying new residents to other states

By Mike Schneider Associated Press Jan. 22, 2026

Federal appeals court rehears challenge against Texas’ immigration law

by Alejandro Serrano Jan. 22, 2026Jan. 22, 2026, 1:29 p.m. Central

How Texans can prepare for extreme weather

By Julia Guilbeau Dec. 11, 2023Jan. 22, 2026, 10:38 a.m. Central

How Texans can prepare for this weekend’s winter weather

by María Méndez Jan. 21, 2026Jan. 22, 2026, 10:05 a.m. Central

Texas lieutenant governor primary: Who is running and what to know

by Renzo Downey Jan. 22, 2026

Link Copy link