2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Wikipedia

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2022 season

Source	Date	Namedstorms	Hurricanes	Majorhurricanes	Ref
Average (1991–2020)		14.4	7.2	3.2	[5]
Record high activity		30	15	7†	[6]
Record low activity		1	0†	0†	[6]
CSU	December 9, 2021	13–16	6–8	2–3	[7]
TSR	December 10, 2021	18	8	3	[8]
TSR	April 6, 2022	18	8	4	[9]
CSU	April 7, 2022	19	9	4	[10]
TWC	April 14, 2022	20	8	4	[11]
UA	April 14, 2022	14	7	3	[12]
NCSU	April 20, 2022	17–21	7–9	3–5	[13]
PSU	May 9, 2022	11–19	N/A	N/A	[14]
UKMO*	May 23, 2022	18	9	4	[15]
NOAA	May 24, 2022	14–21	6–10	3–6	[16]
TSR	May 31, 2022	18	8	4	[17]
CSU	June 2, 2022	20	10	5	[18]
TWC	June 17, 2022	21	9	4	[19]
UA	June 20, 2022	15	7	3	[20]
TSR	July 5, 2022	18	9	4	[21]
CSU	July 7, 2022	20	10	5	[22]
UKMO	August 2, 2022	16	6	4	[23]
NOAA	August 4, 2022	14–20	6–10	3–5	[24]
CSU	August 4, 2022	18	8	4	[24]
TWC	August 18, 2022	17	7	3	[25]
Actual activity	14	8	2
* June–November only† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Philip J. Klotzbach and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 74–126 units.[26] Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h).[5] NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.[5]

Pre-season forecasts

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On December 9, 2021, CSU issued an extended-range forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, giving a 40% chance of near-average activity with 13–16 named storms, 6–8 hurricanes, 2–3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of about 130 units. The forecast also gave a 25% chance that the ACE Index would end up being around 170 units, and a 25% likelihood the likelihood that the index would end up around 80.[7] TSR also issued an extended-range forecast on December 10, 2021.[8] It predicted overall near-average tropical activity with its ACE index, anticipating 18 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes to form during the season. One of their factors was the expectation of a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation condition by the third quarter of 2022. This outlook had "large uncertainties".[8]

In their April 6, 2022, forecast, TSR's number of named storms remained unchanged, while they slightly increased the number of major hurricane from three to four.[9] On the following day, CSU issued their first extended-range seasonal forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting well-above-average activity, with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 160 units. Their factors supporting an active hurricane season included above average-sea surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and a cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña pattern, corresponding to a low chance of an El Niño.[10] The Weather Channel (TWC) issued their first seasonal forecast on April 14, calling for 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.[11] On the same day, the University of Arizona (UA) issued its seasonal prediction for a slightly above-average hurricane season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 129 units.[12] North Carolina State University (NCSU) made its prediction for the season on April 20, calling for an above-average season with 17 to 21 named storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.[13]

On May 9, Pennsylvania State University predicted 14.9 +/- 3.8 tropical storms, or a range of 11 to 19 named storms.[14] On May 23, UKMO issued their own forecast for the 2022 season, predicting an above-average season with 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with a 70% chance that each of these statistics will fall between 13 and 23, 6 and 12, and 2 and 6, respectively.[15] The following day, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their forecasts for the season, predicting a 65% chance of above-average activity and 25% chance for below-average activity, with 14–21 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–6 major hurricanes.[16] TSR released another prediction on May 31 that was unchanged from its April 6 forecast: 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.[17]

Mid-season forecasts

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On June 2, CSU updated their extended-range seasonal forecast, increasing the amount of tropical cyclones to 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an overall ACE index of 180 units. This was done after a later analysis of the lower chances of an El Niño during the season, as well as a warmer-than-average tropical Atlantic.[18] TWC's second outlook, released on June 17, slightly increased the number of named storms to 21 and hurricanes to 9, but left the number of major hurricanes at 4.[19] On June 20, 2022, UA updated its seasonal prediction, which is very similar to its April prediction, with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 131 units.[20] On July 5, TSR released their third forecast for the season, slightly increasing their numbers to 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This prediction was largely based on the persistence of the weak La Niña into the third quarter of the year.[21] On July 7, CSU did not make changes to their updated prediction of 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.[22] UKMO's updated forecast on August 2 called for 16 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.[23] Two days later, NOAA and CSU each revised their activity outlook slightly downward, though both still predicted that the season would end up being busier than the 30-year average. The revisions were made in part because of the relative slow start to the season (as compared to the past few years), with only three short-lived named storms as of the start of August.[24] The third and final TWC seasonal forecast, issued on August 18, decreased the number of named storms to 17, hurricanes to 7, and major hurricanes to 3.[25]