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2022 Fall Forecast: See What’s In Store For Michigan

Michiganders can expect slightly chiller temperatures to start the autumn season, as AccuWeather predicts a late-season chill.

Dylan Siwicki, Patch Staff

Posted Thu, Aug 11, 2022 at 12:01 pm ET

MICHIGAN — While the Midwest is expected to see slightly warmer temperatures to start the autumn season, forecasters however, predict most of Michigan will see normal temperatures when the meteorological autumn kicks off Sept. 1.

Only the southwest portions of the state are expected to see slightly higher temperatures, while some areas in northern Michigan may even see slightly lower temperatures from Sept. 1 through Nov. 30.

Just as northern Michigan's beautiful fall colors begin to transform, AccuWeather forecasters said chilly air will sweep down from Canada across the northern and central portions of the state. The late-season chill, expected by the middle of September, is roughly two weeks earlier than normal.

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However, AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok said the early frost outlook does not pose a serious threat to agriculture during the autumn harvest.

Along with the early season cooling temperatures, Michiganders can expect a fair amount of wet weather, leveling out drought conditions, AccuWeather forecasters said. Other Midwestern states, such as Ohio, Indiana and Illinois are expected to see a moderate to high risk of severe weather this fall.

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The early season chill means most Michiganders will be donning the hoodies and sweaters a little early this fall, probably by the middle of September, AccuWeather said. But the slightly cooler temperatures should not disrupt trips to see northern Michigan's fall colors or cider mills.

To determine its fall forecast, AccuWeather forecasters used data from computer models while also analyzing weather patterns around the globe and past years.

After combining these factors, the AccuWeather team condensed its seasonal outlook into one word: warm.

"With pretty good confidence this year, I think it's a mild fall setting up overall for the U.S.," Pastelok said.

Here’s what other parts of the country could expect:

• In September, millions of residents in the Northeast and Midwest won’t feel much of a change when it comes to temperature. Expect the first frost of the season to arrive one or two weeks earlier than normal across the Upper Midwest and upstate New York.

• For the third consecutive year, La Niña will supercharge the Atlantic hurricane season, which will lead to a higher threat of tropical systems making landfall this autumn.

• Drought conditions are expected to ease across the Northeast, Midwest and Southeast. However, abnormally dry conditions will remain throughout most of the central United States in places like Texas, eastern New Mexico and western Kansas.

Widespread and long-term drought is expected to fuel another active wildfire season in the West. The worst of the fires are expected to develop in areas different from 2021.

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