2022 Washington DC Cherry Blossom Peak Bloom Forecasts
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Menu Menu 2026 Cherry Blossom Peak Bloom Forecasts The latest information and forecasts on when Washington DC’s cherry blossoms around the Tidal Basin will reach peak bloom in Spring 2026.
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By David Coleman Last Updated: March 1, 2026 Filed Under: Peak Bloom Forecasts, Visitor Information Topics: 2026 Cherry Blossom Watch I MAY get commissions for purchases made through links in this post.
2026 Cherry Blossoms
It's still too early to know precisely when the cherry blossoms will bloom in spring 2026 because so much of the timing has to do with the weather in the weeks and months leading up to the bloom.
The bloom averages around the last week of March, but it can also be earlier than that (in a warm spring) or later (in a cold spring).
After a very cold winter, the cherry trees are transitioning from their dormant winter phase to starting the process toward the spring bloom.
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The precise timing of when DC’s cherry blossoms bloom varies from year to year, and it is very heavily influenced by local temperatures in the weeks and months leading up to the bloom. That can make it hard to predict when to time your visit.
On average, DC’s cherry blossoms bloom around the last week of March into the first days of April. But it varies from year to year based on weather conditions, so it can also be a little before or after that period. (Of course, there are always exceptions!)
Sustained cooler temperatures in February and March bring a later bloom, while sustained warmer temperatures make for an earlier bloom. In recent decades, the bloom has been trending earlier.
My objective here is to provide the best and most up-to-date information we have available to help narrow down the timing. Of course, because it hinges so heavily on the weather, there’s always an element of uncertainty, and things can change. But the information below is designed to help you make at least an informed guess.
Latest Updates from the Tidal Basin
- Cherry Blossom Watch Update: February 26, 2026
- Cherry Blossom Watch Update: February 16, 2026
- Cherry Blossom Watch Update: February 8, 2026
Where We’re At Right Now
It’s been a brutally cold winter so far.
December and January were both significantly colder than normal, with only brief periods where temperatures hovered around the historical average. It was not until mid-February that temperatures finally moderated (and the ice and snowcrete finally started to thaw). You can see this severe cold snap reflected in the charts below.
So what does this mean for the cherry blossom bloom?
During the winter and spring, the Yoshino cherry trees go through two distinct biological phases. The first is dormancy. While we can’t see anything happening from the outside, crucial chemical processes are occurring internally to prepare the trees for spring.
To complete this phase, the trees must accumulate a specific quota of “chill hours.” Counterintuitively, they need the right kind of cold — not too cold, and not too warm. Deep freezes halt the process, while mild weather advances it. This long, consistently cold winter has allowed the trees to smoothly complete their full dormancy cycle. In recent years, that hasn’t always been the case; freak winter heatwaves can chemically reverse dormancy in fits and starts, throwing the entire biological clock off.
Because dormancy is now complete, the trees have crossed a biological threshold. They are waking up and ready to take full advantage of the spring warmth.
Does a cold winter mean a late bloom?
Possibly. But it’s not a sure thing. It’s not quite that simple.
And I’ve written a more detailed explanation in a recent update of why an early bloom is still a possibility.
But the gist is a combination of two things.
- The dormancy phase progressed efficiently through a long and cold winter. That means that the trees are now well-positioned to absorb heat.
- Warm temperatures are coming soon. The National Weather Service is forecasting much warmer-than-normal temperatures through the first half of March. For a visual sense, this is their outlook for early March:
A sustained wave of warm weather right now will give the cherry trees a massive biological jolt, rapidly accelerating their development. Because of this, an early bloom — or at the very least, a historically average bloom — is still very much on the table.
You can see how temperatures so far this winter are tracking in the tables and graphs below.
And here’s how we’re tracking day by day this winter. The dashed orange line represents the historical average temperature. The thick purple line represents the corresponding daily averages for this winter. In other words, when the purple line is above the dashed line, it is warmer than normal; when below, it is cooler than average. The data used in this graph are taken from the National Weather Service’s recordings from Reagan National Airport, which you can easily see just across the Potomac from the Tidal Basin.
Daily Average Temperature (2026 Season)
And here’s a similar but slightly different way of looking at it. This shows more directly how far each day has departed from the historical average. The horizontal 0 line represents the historical average. Each vertical bar represents a day. A red bar above the 0 line represents a day that was warmer than the historical average. A blue bar below the 0 line represents a cooler than average day.
Daily Temperature Anomaly (+/- °F)
This final table shows the monthly averages leading up to the peak bloom for the past decade or so. The most important columns are March and February — the temperatures in those months closest to the bloom have the heaviest influence on the timing of the blossoms’ opening. A very warm early March can bring the bloom forward considerably (conversely, a much colder early March can slow things to a crawl).
Historical Monthly Anomalies (°F)
| Season | December | January | February | March | Peak Bloom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | -4.3 | -4.2 | -4.5 | -- | ? |
| 2024-25 | +0.3 | -3.3 | +0.6 | +3.6 | Mar 28 |
| 2023-24 | +3.9 | +2.3 | +4.0 | +6.2 | Mar 17 |
| 2022-23 | -1.5 | +7.7 | +6.3 | -0.9 | Mar 23 |
| 2021-22 | +6.0 | -2.9 | +2.2 | +2.5 | Mar 21 |
| 2020-21 | -0.2 | +1.1 | -2.6 | +2.1 | Mar 28 |
| 2019-20 | +0.5 | +4.9 | +3.4 | +4.4 | Mar 20 |
| 2018-19 | +1.9 | -0.3 | +1.8 | -1.8 | Apr 1 |
| 2017-18 | -2.4 | -1.8 | +4.9 | -5.0 | Apr 5 |
| 2016-17 | +0.2 | +4.6 | +7.3 | -3.6 | Mar 25 |
| 2015-16 | +9.6 | -2.6 | -0.5 | +4.5 | Mar 25 |
| 2014-15 | +2.1 | -1.9 | -10.1 | -3.3 | Apr 10 |
| 2013-14 | +0.7 | -5.3 | -2.6 | -5.7 | Apr 10 |
Current Season Monthly Anomaly (2026)
A note on the data: The historical baseline referenced in the charts and table above represents the official National Weather Service 1991–2020 Climate Normals for Reagan National Airport (DCA). The observed temperatures shown here are pulled directly from the NWS Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) for the DCA station, calculated using the standard NWS (High + Low) / 2 formula. Note: When peak bloom occurs partway through a month, that month's average is strictly calculated only up to the date of peak bloom.Hotels Near the Tidal Basin
If you’re looking for somewhere to stay, these are within easy walking distance of the Tidal Basin (where the most famous cherry blossoms are):
- Canopy by Hilton
- Hyatt House
- Courtyard by Marriott
- InterContinental
- State Plaza Hotel
- Pendry
- Salamander
- Waldorf Astoria
I also have a more detailed post on where to stay for Washington DC’s cherry blossoms that includes a broader range of options.
2026 Peak Bloom Forecasts
A key part of planning to visit the cherry blossoms are the peak bloom forecasts. These are predictions put out in advance for when the cherry blossoms will bloom. Or, more specifically, when they’ll reach “peak bloom,” which is when 70 percent of the blossoms are flowering.
There’s real expertise and science that goes into these predictions, but that definitely doesn’t mean they’re always correct. The core problem is that they rely very heavily on weather forecasts weeks in advance. And we all know how well that goes.
Nevertheless, the peak bloom forecasts are the best guides we have for scheduling a visit.
Some matter more than others, and those that I focus on here aren’t just some random person guessing. I pay the closest attention to those by the NPS and the Washington Post. StormTeam4 is also building a good record, but they’re newer to the game. As others come out, I’ll add any that I think are worth noting.
There were no revisions to the peak bloom forecasts, and most of them were either right on the money or very close to the mark.
Many of the forecasts start coming out around the beginning of March.
National Park Service
No forecast for 2026 has been issued yet.
Washington Post‘s Capital Weather Gang
No forecast for 2026 has been issued yet.
NBC StormTeam4
No forecast for 2026 has been issued yet.
ABC4 StormWatch 4
So this is somewhat of an unusual one. It’s actually from a local TV weather team in Oak Hill, West Virginia, which is not exactly local to DC; as they put it, they’re two gas tanks away. (NB: Despite the naming similarities, this is not the same as local station NBC StormTeam4, which has issued their own forecasts in recent years.)
No forecast for 2026 has been issued yet.
George Mason University
This is a little different from the other predictions here. Statisticians at GMU run a competition for predicting the cherry blossom bloom at several key locations around the world, including Washington DC.
Entrants submit their own predictions, so it’s not a single prediction being issued.
No forecast for 2026 has been issued yet.
What to Expect at the National Mall in Spring 2026
A lot has been happening around the National Mall to get ready for the 250th celebrations in 2026.
To give a sense of what to expect if you visit for the cherry blossoms in Spring 2026, I’ve posted some rundowns of activity at various major sites, and I’ll aim to keep these updated as we get closer.
- What to Expect at the Tidal Basin Seawall Construction Project in Spring 2026
- What to Expect at the Jefferson Memorial in Spring 2026
- What to Expect at the Lincoln Memorial in Spring 2026
There’s nothing particular happening at the MLK, FDR, and World War II Memorials, so I won’t post separate overviews of those. They’re all fully open and accessible.
2026 National Cherry Blossom Festival
The 2026 National Cherry Blossom Festival is scheduled to run from March 20 to April 12, 2026.
Dates have been locked in for several of the festival’s key events:
- Pink Tie Party / Friday, March 13, 2026
- Opening Ceremony / Saturday, March 21, 2026
- Blossom Kite Festival / Saturday, March 28, 2026
- Petalpalooza / Saturday, April 4, 2026
- National Cherry Blossom Festival Parade / Saturday, April 11, 2026
Did You Know?
Some of these require tickets; you can find out more information about that on the festival’s official website.
Books on DC’s Cherry Blossoms
Here are some of my favorite books on DC’s cherry blossoms.
They’re interesting reads for anyone planning to visit. They also make for great gifts for those who can’t make it in person this year.
The Cherry Blossom Festival: Sakura Celebration By Ann McClellan
Buy on Amazon
Cherry Blossoms: Sakura Collections from the Library of Congress By Mari Nakahara, Katherine Blood, and Carla D. Hayden
Buy on Amazon 
Cherry Blossoms: The Official Book of the National Cherry Blossom Festival By Ann McClellan
Buy on AmazonWhen Did Washington DC’s Cherry Blossoms Bloom in 2025?
The cherry blossoms reached peak bloom on March 28, 2025. They are now done for the season.
It was, overall, a remarkably calm lead-up to peak bloom. After a relatively cool winter, warmer temperatures in early March brought a quick flurry of activity around mid-March that then settled into a slow and steady pace of progress until the full bloom.
Peak bloom also coincided with the start of several days of very warm weather. And that rushed things along. By 4-5 days later, the cherry blossoms had become fragile in the warmth, and a wave of strong storms and torrential rain basically ended the bloom overnight.
Common Questions About the Cherry Blossom Peak Bloom Forecasts
Here are some answers to some of the common questions I get asked.
How long do the flowers stay out? What if I miss peak bloom?
The day the cherry blossoms reach peak bloom is not, of course, the only day you can see the flowers. At a minimum, you can expect a beautiful sight for at least a few days before the peak bloom date and at least a few days after. Sometimes they can be out for a couple of weeks.
How long they remain out depends heavily on weather conditions. In ideal conditions (cool, dry, calm), there can still be flowers to see a week or even more after the peak bloom date. So there might be a period of two weeks or more when the flowers look beautiful. In less-than-ideal conditions (wet, windy, hot, stormy), the flowers disappear more quickly, perhaps a week or less. I’ve put together a timeline with photos from previous years to give an idea of what you can expect to see during the different stages of the bloom.
The crucial point is that you don’t have to be there precisely on peak bloom day to be greeted with a beautiful sight. There are still flowers to see in the days before and after that.
If you’re too early for the main cherry blossoms, your timing might be good for saucer magnolias. There’s a particularly beautiful collection of them in the garden behind the Smithsonian Castle, but there are plenty of others scattered around the city, including a small grove at the George Mason Memorial next to the Tidal Basin. Another good spot for them is Rawlins Park in Foggy Bottom (across the other side of the National Mall).
And if you’re too late for the Yoshino peak bloom by two or three weeks, you might be in luck with a different variety that is also very pretty: the Kwanzan cherry blossoms. Tulips are another spring highlight around the area, and you can find them at a number of places around the National Mall as well as further afield.
Do the peak bloom predictions change?
Yes. It’s common for them to be revised as we get closer to the bloom. In particular, the timing of the bloom depends heavily on the weather (specifically, temperatures). And, as we all know, weather predictions don’t always match reality.
This is why it’s worth checking back to this page for the current forecasts or signing up to get updates using one of the methods described below.
How are the peak bloom predictions made?
The official National Park Service (NPS) peak bloom predictions — and any scientifically rigorous phenological model — rely on a three-part intersection of mathematical modeling, physical botany, and predictive meteorology.
1. The Phenological Model (Chill and Heat) Predicting a bloom requires tracking two distinct biological phases. The first is winter rest. To successfully wake up, Yoshino cherry trees must accumulate a specific quota of “chill hours.” Counterintuitively, deep freezes halt this process; the trees actually need temperatures in a specific cool sweet spot (roughly 34°F to 45°F) to chemically prepare for spring. In modern, erratic winters, freak heatwaves can chemically reverse this process, making it difficult to pinpoint the exact moment the tree breaks dormancy (known as the biofix).
Once that chill requirement is finally satisfied, the second phase begins: spring awakening. The tree’s metabolic clock starts ticking, and we calculate Growing Degree Days (GDD). GDD tracks the daily thermal energy the tree absorbs above its physiological baseline (5°C or 41°F for Yoshinos). Every degree above that baseline is essentially a “heat point,” and once the tree accumulates its required GDD target, the blossoms open.
2. The Biological Reality Check (Physical Observation) Math is rigid, but trees are living organisms reacting to highly localized microclimates. The second crucial step is physically examining the trees to ground-truth the math against actual bud development. The trees progress through six distinct, visible stages (from “green bud” to “puffy white”). Sometimes, biological reality deviates from the mathematical curve. In 2018, for example, the mathematical model projected an early bloom based on accumulated heat, but a sudden, sustained cold snap caused the trees’ metabolism to safely pause, trapping them in the green bud stage for weeks and completely upending the initial forecast.
3. Meteorological Volatility (The Forecasting Limit) The third and most unstable element is the weather forecast. Even if our biological equation is flawless, predicting a date three or four weeks away means predicting the future. We are forced to feed the GDD equation with long-range weather models, which are notoriously volatile. If a meteorological model overestimates a coming warm front by just a few degrees, the phenological model will artificially accelerate the peak bloom prediction. Because the math is entirely at the mercy of the weather forecast, prediction dates often swing wildly early in the season. This is why the NPS rarely locks in a high-confidence prediction until we are inside a reliable, ten-day meteorological window.
What does “peak bloom” mean & why is it a date range?
The peak bloom date is the day on which the NPS horticulturists judge that 70 percent of the Yoshino blossoms are out. There are a number of different varieties of cherry trees around and near the Tidal Basin, but the Yoshino variety is by far the most numerous and famous.
“Peak Bloom” is a specific day that the threshold is passed. So when a forecast expects peak bloom between such and such dates, it means that they expect the 70 percent threshold to be crossed one day during that range.
It does not mean that the flowers will be at peak bloom for that entire date range. It also does not mean that you have to be there only on that specific day to catch the spectacle. More on that below.
I have more detail in a separate post explaining the ins and outs of peak bloom.
How accurate are peak bloom forecasts?
The NPS arborists are the first to point out that they’re not really confident in their prediction until about ten days out.
And nature has a way of being unpredictable sometimes, as the 2017 bloom proved. There are so many variables that can come into play, especially since the prediction is based on long-range weather forecasts a month or more out.
Sometimes, the predictions nail it. Other times, Mother Nature has other plans, and it’s not at all unusual for the forecasts to be revised as we get closer to the date as the actual weather conditions diverge from the long-range weather forecast the peak bloom predictions initially relied on.
So the peak bloom forecasts are the best information we have to go on, but that doesn’t mean things always pan out as expected, and it’s quite common for the forecasts to change. So be sure to keep checking in for any updates. I keep the peak bloom forecasts page up to date with the latest information.
Are there any other peak bloom forecasts?
The two to watch are the forecasts by the National Park Service and the Washington Post‘s Capital Weather Gang. Both typically issue their first forecasts for the season around the end of February or the beginning of March.
From time to time, there are some other forecasts issued that are worth noting, and I try to include them when possible. The weather team from the local NBC station, Storm Team 4, have also been making their own predictions in recent years, and I’ve sometimes started including those.
What month is cherry blossom season in Washington DC?
The cherry blossoms in Washington DC usually bloom around the end of March into early April. In recent years, they’ve trended toward the earlier end of that range.
What kinds of cherry blossom trees are in Washington DC?
There are about a dozen different kinds of cherry trees among the thousands around and near the Tidal Basin. The most famous and most numerous are Yoshino cherry trees. Probably the next most famous are the Kwanzan cherry blossoms, but they bloom a couple of weeks after the others and are mostly set back a short distance from the Tidal Basin itself.
Where can I see the cherry blossoms in Washington DC?
While there are cherry trees scattered throughout the region, by far the most famous ones are centered around the Tidal Basin and the area near the National Mall. These are the ones you’ve probably seen in photos with famous monuments like the Jefferson Memorial and Washington Monument.
I’ve put together a detailed guide on how to get to the cherry blossoms as well as some suggestions for alternate (and less crowded) places to find cherry blossoms in and around DC.
What If I Miss Them? What Can I See?
If you’re early . . .
Saucer Magnolias. If you’re early by a couple of weeks, you might catch the saucer magnolias. There are a few notable groves of saucer magnolias near the Tidal Basin and National Mall, but the most impressive of them is the Enid A. Haupt Garden behind the Smithsonian Castle.
If you’re late . . .
Kwanzan cherry blossoms. If you’re a little late for the main cherry blossom bloom, the timing might be good for another variety that blooms a little later. They’re known as the Kwanzan (or Kanzan) cherry blossoms, and while there are fewer of them, they’re especially pretty with larger and more colorful flowers. You can find more information on where to find them here.
Tulips. Tulips aren’t unique to this area, of course, but there does seem to be an unusually high concentration of them here, especially in prominent placements and beautiful settings. They tend to bloom a little later than the cherry blossoms, usually around early to mid-April, although there can also be overlap. I’ve put together some suggestions on where to find tulips in and around Washington, D.C.
2026 Cherry Blossom Ten Miler
The 2026 Credit Union Cherry Blossom Ten Mile Run & 5K Run-Walk is scheduled for the weekend of April 11 (5K) and April 12 (10M).
You can find more information, along with entry details, on their website.
History of DC’s Cherry Blossoms
Here’s a very good overview of the cherry blossoms and their history that WETA produced not too long ago:
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Add as Preferred SourceImages and product information from Amazon Product Advertising API were last updated on 2026-03-01 at 18:25.
The Winter So Far
And here’s how we’re tracking day by day this winter. The dashed orange line represents the historical average temperature. The thick purple line represents the corresponding daily averages for this winter. In other words, when the purple line is above the dashed line, it is warmer than normal; when below, it is cooler than average. The data used in this graph are taken from the National Weather Service’s recordings from Reagan National Airport, which you can easily see just across the Potomac from the Tidal Basin.
Daily Average Temperature (2026 Season)
And here’s a similar but slightly different way of looking at it. This shows more directly how far each day has departed from the historical average. The horizontal 0 line represents the historical average. Each vertical bar represents a day. A red bar above the 0 line represents a day that was warmer than the historical average. A blue bar below the 0 line represents a cooler than average day.
Daily Temperature Anomaly (+/- °F)
This final table shows the monthly averages leading up to the peak bloom for the past decade or so. The most important columns are March and February — the temperatures in those months closest to the bloom have the heaviest influence on the timing of the blossoms’ opening. A very warm early March can bring the bloom forward considerably (conversely, a much colder early March can slow things to a crawl).
Historical Monthly Anomalies (°F)
| Season | December | January | February | March | Peak Bloom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | -4.3 | -4.2 | -4.5 | -- | ? |
| 2024-25 | +0.3 | -3.3 | +0.6 | +3.6 | Mar 28 |
| 2023-24 | +3.9 | +2.3 | +4.0 | +6.2 | Mar 17 |
| 2022-23 | -1.5 | +7.7 | +6.3 | -0.9 | Mar 23 |
| 2021-22 | +6.0 | -2.9 | +2.2 | +2.5 | Mar 21 |
| 2020-21 | -0.2 | +1.1 | -2.6 | +2.1 | Mar 28 |
| 2019-20 | +0.5 | +4.9 | +3.4 | +4.4 | Mar 20 |
| 2018-19 | +1.9 | -0.3 | +1.8 | -1.8 | Apr 1 |
| 2017-18 | -2.4 | -1.8 | +4.9 | -5.0 | Apr 5 |
| 2016-17 | +0.2 | +4.6 | +7.3 | -3.6 | Mar 25 |
| 2015-16 | +9.6 | -2.6 | -0.5 | +4.5 | Mar 25 |
| 2014-15 | +2.1 | -1.9 | -10.1 | -3.3 | Apr 10 |
| 2013-14 | +0.7 | -5.3 | -2.6 | -5.7 | Apr 10 |
Current Season Monthly Anomaly (2026)
A note on the data: The historical baseline referenced in the charts and table above represents the official National Weather Service 1991–2020 Climate Normals for Reagan National Airport (DCA). The observed temperatures shown here are pulled directly from the NWS Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) for the DCA station, calculated using the standard NWS (High + Low) / 2 formula. Note: When peak bloom occurs partway through a month, that month's average is strictly calculated only up to the date of peak bloom.The 2026 Bloom
Progress So Far- Winter Dormant
- Waking Up
- Green Buds
- Florets Visible
- Florets Extended
- Peduncle Elongation
- Puffy White
- Peak Bloom
- Petals Falling
- Green Leaves
- Fall / Autumn
Hotels Near the Tidal Basin
- Canopy by Hilton
- Courtyard by Marriott
- Hyatt House
- InterContinental
- State Plaza Hotel
- Pendry
- Salamander
- Waldorf Astoria
Things to Do
- DC Events & Shows
- DC Tours
Reserve Parking
- SpotHero
- ParkMobile
Closest Airport
- Reagan National (DCA)
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