California's Projected Economic Losses Under ACA Repeal

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  February 2, 2017 - Los Angeles Times

• Modesto hospital would take financial hit from ACA repeal; job cuts are less certain

  February 2, 2017 - The Modesto Bee

• Study: Job Losses In The Central Valley From ACA Repeal Could Be Worse Than The Drought

  February 1, 2017 - Valley Public Radio

• What California could lose in ACA repeal

  February 1, 2017 - State of Reform

• Forecast: Downturn likely in coming years

  January 31, 2017 - Stockton Record

• Op-Ed Obamacare repeal would hit California’s Central Valley hard

  January 26, 2017 - Los Angeles Times

• Uncovered California: ACA Repeal’s Full Cost

  January 25, 2017 - California Magazine, Cal Alumni Association

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  January 19, 2017 - Los Angeles Times

• Obamacare repeal could leave 5 million Californians without health care

  January 19, 2017 - Sacramento Bee

• Democrats to McCarthy: Repealing Obamacare will hurt your district the most

  January 19, 2017 - Bakersfield.com

• Study: ACA Repeal Could Mean Loss Of 200,000 Jobs In California

  January 19, 2017 - Health IT Outcomes

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  January 18, 2017 - Compton Herald

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  January 17, 2017 - Fresno Bee

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  January 12, 2017 - Monterey County Herald

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• Health Care Emergency: Trump, GOP Threaten Obamacare, Medicare and Medicaid

  January 5, 2017 - Random Lengths News

• California, LA County fret over what ‘Trumpcare’ could mean after Obamacare

  January 4, 2017 - Los Angeles Daily News

• Repeal of Affordable Care Act will mean economic losses for state, study predicts

  January 3, 2017 - The Daily Californian

• Study predicts ACA repeal would result in 3,000 lost jobs in Stanislaus County

  December 27, 2016 - The Modesto Bee

• California Economy Would Suffer Under ACA Repeal, Researchers Say

  December 23, 2016 - Bloomberg BNA

• People of Color and the Poor Will be Hardest Hit by ACA Repeal

  December 21, 2016 - New America Media

• Repeal of Obamacare could cost state jobs and the economy

  December 21, 2016 - Woodland Daily Democrat

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Introduction

If Congress follows through on President-elect Trump’s campaign promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), 3.7 million Californians enrolled in the Medi-Cal expansion would lose that coverage, and another 1.2 million individuals enrolled through California’s health benefit exchange, Covered California, would lose federal subsidies to make private health insurance more affordable. These two ACA provisions are the largest drivers of the historic reduction in the state’s uninsured rate from 17.2% in 2013 to 8.6% in 2015.

Not only would repeal of the ACA reverse much of these coverage gains, but California would lose approximately $20.5 billion in annual federal funding for the Medi-Cal expansion and Covered California subsidies. The economic losses associated with these lost federal dollars would be partially offset by limited economic gains from other provisions that may be included as part of the repeal of the ACA, which could yield $6.3 billion in tax cuts to California insurers and high-income households and nearly $1.3 billion in eliminated penalties for uninsured individuals and employers not offering affordable coverage.

In this brief, we estimate the effects on employment, gross domestic product (GDP), and state and local tax revenue in California with the elimination of the major health insurance expansions, reduction in taxes, and removal of penalties under a partial repeal of the ACA. A summary of these estimates is shown in the exhibit below. We also estimate losses for select medium and large counties that would be especially harmed economically by ACA repeal because of their high share of population (more than 10%) enrolled in the Medi-Cal expansion: Fresno, Kern, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare Counties.