D.C. Could Reach Its COVID Peak Soon - DCist

As a surge in COVID-19 cases driven by the highly-transmissible omicron variant overwhelms the region’s hospitals, epidemiologists predict the D.C. region may be nearing a peak in cases. If case trends continue to mirror those in omicron waves abroad, they predict that a decline in coronavirus cases could be on the way soon — though the recent surge in cases will lead to a further spike in hospitalizations and deaths over the next month.

“A lot of us have been looking at what happened in South Africa and what’s happening in parts of Europe, where they have data that are being produced on a regular basis,” says Amira Roess, a professor of global health and epidemiology at George Mason University. “And lots of places are basically telling you the same thing: that it’s around a month between when the number of cases eclipses any previous wave to when the peak is reached, and it slowly starts to come down and then suddenly it dips significantly.”

By that logic, Roess says, one could expect cases in the D.C. region to reach a peak over the next week, since coronavirus cases began to surpass previous peaks and start setting records in mid- to late-December. And the true effect of that peak on hospitalizations and deaths in the region, Roess says, will start to take shape about two weeks later.

“That will start to give us a more definitive answer about disease severity from omicron, compared to delta,” says Roess.

In D.C., officials say there’s preliminary evidence that the city’s peak may have already arrived, as case counts have started to decrease this week.

“We are seeing better numbers on our weekly and daily case counts, and so we are very hopeful based on that data that we are getting to a better spot,” D.C. Health deputy director Patrick Ashley said during a press conference on Monday. But, he added, “it’s still certainly high. It’s still an area for concern. And we don’t expect that to go down overnight, but we’re optimistic about some of the data we’ve seen over the past seven days or so.”

D.C. is currently averaging about 1,712 new COVID-19 cases per day, according to the most recent available data. While that number is below what it was around New Year’s Day, when the city was seeing an average of more than 2,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases a day, it is still well above what health officials consider “substantial community spread” of the coronavirus.

In Maryland, Prince George’s County and Montgomery County have seen similar trends, with cases spiking to record levels around the New Year and decreasing slightly since.

Meanwhile, D.C.’s Virginia suburbs are still seeing record-high case counts. Over the past week, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Prince William County, and Loudoun County all saw their highest daily case rates ever. Unlike D.C. and its Maryland suburbs, jurisdictions in northern Virginia have not reimposed indoor mask mandates in response to the recent wave of COVID-19 cases.

Data experts have also warned that cases are almost certainly being undercounted, because people with mild symptoms may not know that they should get tested and there’s wide variability in whether health departments are collecting data from rapid COVID-19 tests people are taking at home.

Neil J. Sehgal, a public health professor at University of Maryland, recently told WAMU/DCist that he expects hospitals in the D.C. region will continue to fill up until mid-February. Local health officials have also expressed some optimism regarding the severity of recent COVID-19 cases, telling reporters that hospitals are seeing fewer patients on ventilators and that on an individual level, COVID-19 patients are faring better because of improved treatments. Additionally, they say, vaccines and booster shots remain extremely effective at preventing severe disease and death.

Still, deaths from COVID-19 have been increasing in D.C., Maryland, and Virginia, according to the Washington Post’s local coronavirus tracker. (Throughout the pandemic, more than 29,000 people in D.C., Maryland, and Virginia have died from the virus.)

And the surge in COVID-19 cases is already overwhelming local hospitals and the health care workers who staff them. The spike in hospitalizations due to COVID-19, on top of hospitals’ existing patient loads, has exacerbated a staffing crisis. Hospitals across the region have re-instituted COVID-19 surge plans they put into effect at the start of the pandemic and cut back on non-emergency surgeries. Kimi Chernoby, an emergency medicine doctor who works in D.C. and Virginia hospitals, recently told WAMU/DCist that it feels like the rest of the community is “abandoning the health care system and not willing to take mitigation steps” to stop further spread of the virus.

“The sense that we’re all left with is that we’re all just a commodity — we being health care workers — and very much are just pawns in the system,” said Chernoby.

As further evidence of the staffing crisis, nurses at Howard University Hospital held a protest on Thursday, demanding that the hospital do more to fill vacancies so they can better serve patients.

“Every health care worker that I speak with who’s in an emergency department, who’s in the hospital, is saying the same thing: We’re at capacity. We’re exhausted. We can’t keep functioning like this,” says Roess.

During Monday’s press conference, D.C. officials acknowledged that the surge was affecting hospitals in part because health care workers have — like many other area residents — been contracting COVID-19.

“You can have as many beds in the world that you want but unless you have staff to staff them, they’re not useful,” Ashley, with D.C. Health, told reporters. “We’re working very closely with the hospitals to make sure they have the resources that they need.”

Roess emphasized that given the effect the omicron surge is already having, it’s especially important for residents in the D.C. region to stay vigilant and exercise caution with regard to the virus.

“Our emergency departments are really struggling to take care of people who need help. So if you get into a car accident, if you have any kind of health emergency, COVID or non-COVID related, it’s increasingly difficult to get care,” says Roess. “That is not a situation where we can say, ‘Oh, we’re living just fine with the virus.’ We’re not there yet, and so we do have to consider what our actions mean in terms of adding to the caseload.”

For Roess, that means residents should think about how they interact with the immunocompromised or elderly individuals in their lives — and mask up, meet outdoors, or get tested immediately before meeting with someone who is high risk. “That way, you cut down the risk of infecting someone who might very well end up needing emergency care if they become infected,” she says.

Despite a “very limited appetite” for significant rules that would restrict people’s movement or activity levels, “that’s our reality,” Roess says. “Because we know that there are some simple things that work to help slow down transmission and to protect vulnerable populations, we as individuals, as neighborhoods — we need to just move forward and do those things.”