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Experimental Probability Siddharth Kalla197.5K reads

Experimental probability refers to the probability of an event occurring when an experiment was conducted.

This article is a part of the guide:

Select from one of the other courses available: Scientific MethodResearch DesignResearch BasicsExperimental ResearchSamplingValidity and ReliabilityWrite a PaperBiological PsychologyChild DevelopmentStress & CopingMotivation and EmotionMemory & LearningPersonalitySocial Psychology ExperimentsScience Projects for KidsSurvey GuidePhilosophy of ScienceReasoningEthics in ResearchAncient HistoryRenaissance & EnlightenmentMedical HistoryPhysics ExperimentsBiology ExperimentsZoologyStatistics Beginners GuideStatistical ConclusionStatistical TestsDistribution in Statistics Discover 24 more articles on this topic Don't miss these related articles:

1. Significance 2
2. Sample Size
3. Cronbach’s Alpha
4. Random Error
5. Systematic Error

Browse Full Outline

• 1Inferential Statistics
• 2Experimental Probability
  • 2.1Bayesian Probability
• 3Confidence Interval
  • 3.1Significance Test
    • 3.1.1Significance 2
  • 3.2Significant Results
  • 3.3Sample Size
  • 3.4Margin of Error
  • 3.5Experimental Error
    • 3.5.1Random Error
    • 3.5.2Systematic Error
    • 3.5.3Data Dredging
    • 3.5.4Ad Hoc Analysis
    • 3.5.5Regression Toward the Mean
• 4Statistical Power Analysis
  • 4.1P-Value
  • 4.2Effect Size
• 5Ethics in Statistics
  • 5.1Philosophy of Statistics
• 6Statistical Validity
  • 6.1Statistics and Reliability
    • 6.1.1Reliability 2
  • 6.2Cronbach’s Alpha

1 Inferential Statistics2 Experimental Probability3 Confidence Interval4 Statistical Power Analysis5 Ethics in Statistics6 Statistical Validity

In such a case, the probability of an event is being determined through an actual experiment. Mathematically,

Experimental probability	=	Number of event occurrences
		Total number of trials

For example, if a dice is rolled 6000 times and the number '5' occurs 990 times, then the experimental probability that '5' shows up on the dice is 990/6000 = 0.165.

On the other hand, theoretical probability is determined by noting all the possible outcomes theoretically, and determining how likely the given outcome is. Mathematically,

Theoretical probability	=	Number of favorable outcomes
		Total number of outcomes

For example, the theoretical probability that the number '5' shows up on a dice when rolled is 1/6 = 0.167. This is because of the 6 possible outcomes (dice showing '1', '2', '3', '4', '5', '6'), only 1 outcome (dice showing '5') is favorable.

As the number of trials keeps increasing, the experimental probability tends towards the theoretical probability. To see this, the number trials should be sufficiently large in number.

Experimental probability is frequently used in research and experiments of social sciences, behavioral sciences, economics and medicine.

In cases where the theoretical probability cannot be calculated, we need to rely on experimental probability.

For example, to find out how effective a given cure for a pathogen in mice is, we simply take a number of mice with the pathogen and inject our cure.

We then find out how many mice were cured and this would give us the experimental probability that a mouse is cured to be the ratio of number of mice cured to the total number of mice tested.

In this case, it is not possible to calculate the theoretical probability. We can then extend this experimental probability to all mice.

It should be noted that in order for experimental probability to be meaningful in research, the sample size must be sufficiently large.

In our above example, if we test our cure on 3 mice and all of these are cured, then the experimental probability that a mouse is cured is 1. However, the sample size is too small to conclude that the cure works in 100% of the cases.

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« Previous Article "Inferential Statistics" Back to Overview "Statistical Conclusion" Next Article » "Bayesian Probability" Full reference:

Siddharth Kalla (Jul 16, 2009). Experimental Probability. Retrieved Dec 17, 2025 from Explorable.com: https://explorable.com/experimental-probability

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This article is a part of the guide:

Select from one of the other courses available: Scientific MethodResearch DesignResearch BasicsExperimental ResearchSamplingValidity and ReliabilityWrite a PaperBiological PsychologyChild DevelopmentStress & CopingMotivation and EmotionMemory & LearningPersonalitySocial Psychology ExperimentsScience Projects for KidsSurvey GuidePhilosophy of ScienceReasoningEthics in ResearchAncient HistoryRenaissance & EnlightenmentMedical HistoryPhysics ExperimentsBiology ExperimentsZoologyStatistics Beginners GuideStatistical ConclusionStatistical TestsDistribution in Statistics Discover 24 more articles on this topic Don't miss these related articles:

1. Significance 2
2. Sample Size
3. Cronbach’s Alpha
4. Random Error
5. Systematic Error

Browse Full Outline

• 1Inferential Statistics
• 2Experimental Probability
  • 2.1Bayesian Probability
• 3Confidence Interval
  • 3.1Significance Test
    • 3.1.1Significance 2
  • 3.2Significant Results
  • 3.3Sample Size
  • 3.4Margin of Error
  • 3.5Experimental Error
    • 3.5.1Random Error
    • 3.5.2Systematic Error
    • 3.5.3Data Dredging
    • 3.5.4Ad Hoc Analysis
    • 3.5.5Regression Toward the Mean
• 4Statistical Power Analysis
  • 4.1P-Value
  • 4.2Effect Size
• 5Ethics in Statistics
  • 5.1Philosophy of Statistics
• 6Statistical Validity
  • 6.1Statistics and Reliability
    • 6.1.1Reliability 2
  • 6.2Cronbach’s Alpha

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Add to my courses 1 Inferential Statistics2 Experimental Probability3 Confidence Interval4 Statistical Power Analysis5 Ethics in Statistics6 Statistical Validity

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