Last-minute Tips For Building A Better NCAA Men's Tournament Bracket

We’re getting close to window lock in your 2022 Tourney Pick'Em bracket. You need some final swing thoughts on the NCAA men's tournament before you click on your final answer. Here are some things to consider.

Your late-round picks are most important

This is obvious to any seasoned tournament player, but it’s still worth mentioning up front. Most pools stagger the scoring so that the points are heavily weighted to the end of the tournament. This means that if a non-Cinderella wins the whole thing, most likely, you will absolutely need to have that team on your final line, along with other shrewd picks. If a shocking team cuts down the nets, perhaps you can win your tournament without the title team properly selected. But more often than not, you need the winner.

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So focus most of your energy on the later picks. That’s where the cheddar is.

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Let the point spread be your guide

If you simply focus on the NCAA seeding of each matchup, you’ll miss the perceived difference between some teams. Although Michigan is an 11 seed and Colorado State is a 6 seed, the Wolverines are favored in that matchup. Providence versus South Dakota State might feel like a mismatch by seed — the Friars are a 4, the Jackrabbits are a 13 — but the spread on that game is only 2.5.

There’s a ton of interest in the NCAA tournament and the books have incentive to put out a solid line. Obviously sports are unpredictable and these games are played by athletes in their teens and early 20s, so some results will fall nowhere close to the projected outcome. But if you want a good sense of team strength, Vegas is your friend. We use this hack all the time in fantasy football, and it’s just as useful here.

Your pool might have discernible biases

One of my earliest NCAA pool wins came in 1995, when UCLA cut down the nets. My angle on UCLA was simple — I thought the Bruins had a plausible chance to go deep in the tournament, and I expected almost no one in my East Coast-based group to play them. Early in the tournament, I realized that if the Bruins were the champion, I was going to win, no matter what else I got right on my sheet. It’s a nice feeling.

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In some bracket contests, you’ll know very little about your opposition and their likely picks and habits. That’s okay. But in an office or neighborhood pool, you might be able to sleuth out some of the expected picks.

If you’re going for the gold in the Yahoo Tourney Pick’Em, we have data to help you. The research section provides all sorts of data on how Yahoo users are handicapping the tournament.

My Preferred Style: Secondary favorites with high upside

Generally I will not pick the first or second favorite on my tournament sheets; there’s so much crowding there. As I compose this article, Gonzaga is the champion on 35.69 percent of Yahoo user sheets, with Arizona a healthy second choice (16.47 percent). As great as those teams are, I don’t see those teams as an overlay opportunity.

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I’m more likely to pick someone like Kentucky (5.95 percent) or Villanova (3.66 percent), feeling their popularity is not commensurate with their true odds to win the championship. And I have one other season to focus on this pair of Wildcats, the final tidbit I’ll offer you today . . .

Remember college basketball is a coach’s game

Obviously the coaches don’t make shots, play defense, or corral rebounds. But the best NCAA coaches are successful for several reasons — they can recruit talent, teach and motivate players, and influence officials.

That final element is something I like to focus on during Tournament time. I want my deep-run teams to be backed by a coach who has a certain gravitas, the type of coach who can lawyer his way into a foul or free-throw advantage. (For a great example of this, watch the second half of Duke’s 2015 win over Wisconsin in the championship game. Mike Krzyzewski’s obviously a terrific coach in every way, but his sideline pleas were especially valuable as Duke received a bunch of favorable calls in the second half.)

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John Calipari is the pilot for Kentucky. Jay Wright has multiple titles for Villanova. That’s why they’ll be prominent in my pool strategy for this week.

Of course, it’s more likely than not that my picks will be wrong. There are a bunch of teams who can take down the title. And while you’re welcome to consider any of my advice, at the end of the day, it’s your team, it’s your sheet, it’s your dance. Take your best shot. Embrace the madness.

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