Maritime Piracy In The Gulf Of Guinea - GIS Reports

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Scenarios

Piracy and other illicit maritime activities are deeply intertwined with weak governance. Although there are differences from state to state, overall, the region is still plagued by corruption: security services, border control, customs and many others in key positions all benefit from transnational organized crime. Misappropriation of development funds provided by international partners is also part of the equation.

Unlike maritime piracy off the Horn of Africa, the problem in the Gulf of Guinea is not related to state collapse, but rather the result of states that tolerate illicit behavior in a “complex criminal web” encompassing “foreign oil traders, shippers, bankers, refiners, high-level politicians and military officials,” as described by a Chatham House report.

Economic outlook

The regional black market for oil (itself a product of structural problems within West African states) is one of the main drivers of piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. In Nigeria, oil accounts for 75 percent of state revenues and 90 percent of its exports. But fuel and oil theft and smuggling result in an estimated loss of 6 to 10 percent of the country’s output.

A possible cut in imports of Russian oil and gas, given the current conflict in Eastern Europe, could benefit the Gulf of Guinea’s oil producers, and would make the region’s maritime security agenda even more relevant.

With one of the world’s richest fishing grounds, the Gulf accounts for almost 4 percent of global production. But adding to the 65 percent of legally reported catch (the highest level in the world), illegal fishing is estimated to cost $1.5 billion to local governments and further escalates economic tensions and risks. Employing millions of people, these key sectors for regional economic growth could be endangered if piracy levels and illegal trade spiral out of control.

With a growth average of around 4 percent from 2010 to 2019, some of the 17 countries of the coastal region are performing well, with growth rates over 6 percent. Profits, however, do not necessarily trickle down to the masses given the misappropriation of natural resources revenues. The region is home to some 417.6 million people, and is expected to account for 25 percent of the global population by 2050. Unemployment is high, especially among the youth. Faced with a lack of economic opportunities, young people are likely to look for other sources of income, facilitating recruitment by criminal groups. The current picture does not bode well for the region’s economic and social prospects.

Governance

Long-term reforms addressing the multidimensional structural problems behind maritime crime – weak political institutions, corruption, resource control-led conflicts, demographic pressure – are needed to tackle the issue. However, they are unlikely in the near future, especially since there are reasons to question governments’ commitment and political will to undertake these reforms.

Destabilization

Rampant levels of maritime insecurity, transnational organized crime, smuggling and trafficking (also linked to drugs coming from South America) and illegal fishing, could compromise the economic prospects of the region, threatening maritime trade in the short term, and in the longer run the stability of coastal states. Political instability in Guinea-Bissau is already a reflection of this trend.

While the Gulf of Guinea may not be at the top of the international agenda, it remains a strategic area. Instability could be made worse by the region’s proximity to the Sahel. With direct and porous land borders with Mali and Burkina Faso, the risk of destabilization throughout West Africa all the way to the coast should be considered.