NCAA Bracketology - Projecting The 2023 March Madness Men's Field

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By Joe Lunardi Updated: 12/30/2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET

The conference play portion of the 2025-26 season will begin in earnest with the arrival of the new calendar year. Which means Bracketology, too, will update its schedule: Beginning in January, we will have two updates each week, all the way through to the end of the regular season.

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

Michigan

First Team Out

Oklahoma State

Last Team In

Oklahoma

The SEC dominated headlines last season, but at least one of its record 14 NCAA tournament teams remained under the radar: Vanderbilt. Under new coach Mark Byington, the Commodores went 20-13 and earned the school's first NCAA bid in eight years. But they also lost their last four games, including their SEC (Texas) and NCAA (Saint Mary's) tournament openers. Incremental improvement was thus the forecast for this season, so it's fair to say their unbeaten record (13-0) and projected 2-seed have caught most of the nation off guard -- or at least those who voted them 11th in the SEC's preseason poll. Will this nonconference success carry over? KenPom pegs Vandy with the second-best offense and third-best defense in the SEC, so a run good enough to match the Sweet 16 years of 2004 and 2007 seems plausible. The Dores haven't been further than that since 1965, but we could be witnessing history in the making.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

• NC State
• LSU
• Baylor
• Indiana

Last Four In

• Miami
• Ohio State
• Butler
• Oklahoma

First Four Out

• Oklahoma State
• Boise State
• California
• New Mexico

Next Four Out

• Virginia Tech
• Arizona State
• Creighton
• VCU

68-Team Bracket

Moved Up

Moved Down

New Team to Bracket

Automatic Qualifier

1. 16Lindenwood
2. 16Howard
3. 11Butler
4. 11Oklahoma

1. 11Miami
2. 11Ohio State
3. 16Milwaukee
4. 16Grambling

MIDWEST (CHICAGO)

Buffalo

1. 1 Michigan - aq
2. 16 Lindenwood - aq/ Howard - aq
3. 8 Georgia
4. 9 UCF

San Diego

1. 5 Texas Tech
2. 12 Utah Valley - aq
3. 4 North Carolina
4. 13 Arkansas State - aq

Philadelphia

1. 6 Iowa
2. 11 Butler/ Oklahoma
3. 3 Houston
4. 14 Lipscomb - aq

Greenville

1. 7 Villanova
2. 10 NC State
3. 2 Vanderbilt - aq
4. 15 St. Thomas-Minnesota - aq

EAST (WASHINGTON D.C.)

Philadelphia

1. 1 UConn - aq
2. 16 Colgate - aq
3. 8 Auburn
4. 9 SMU

Oklahoma City

1. 5 Tennessee
2. 12 William & Mary - aq
3. 4 Kansas
4. 13 Illinois State - aq

Buffalo

1. 6 Arkansas
2. 11 Miami/ Ohio State
3. 3 Michigan State
4. 14 Quinnipiac - aq

Greenville

1. 7 St. John's
2. 10 LSU
3. 2 Duke - aq
4. 15 Vermont - aq

WEST (SAN JOSE)

San Diego

1. 1aq - Arizona
2. 16aq - Long Island
3. 8 Saint Mary's
4. 9 UCLA

Tampa

1. 5 Florida
2. 12aq - Akron
3. 4 Nebraska
4. 13aq - Liberty

Oklahoma City

1. 6 USC
2. 11aq - Tulsa
3. 3 Illinois
4. 14aq - Northern Colorado

Portland

1. 7aq - Utah State
2. 10 Baylor
3. 2aq - Gonzaga
4. 15aq - Furman

SOUTH (HOUSTON)

St. Louis

1. 1 Iowa State
2. 16aq - Milwaukeeaq - Grambling/
3. 8 Clemson
4. 9 Seton Hall

Tampa

1. 5 Louisville
2. 12aq - Yale
3. 4 Alabama
4. 13aq - High Point

Portland

1. 6 Virginia
2. 11 Indiana
3. 3 BYU
4. 14aq - Hawai'i

St. Louis

1. 7 Kentucky
2. 10aq - Saint Louis
3. 2 Purdue
4. 15aq - Stephen F. Austin

Conference Breakdown

ConferenceTeamBig Ten10SEC10Big 128ACC8Big East5WCC2All NCAAM Conferences

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

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RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

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