Odds To Win The 2023 NBA MVP

Nikola Jokic's odds of winning his fourth NBA MVP award in six years came to a grinding halt on Monday when the All-Star center suffered a serious knee injury in a loss to the Miami Heat.

A subsequent MRI gave the Denver Nuggets some reason for optimism, but the injury is likely to sideline Jokic for at least four weeks and could cost him the minimum 65 games needed to qualify for the award, per league regulations.

The setback has had a swift impact on the heated NBA MVP race, with Jokic's odds moving from +175 to off the board entirely. Meanwhile, reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the biggest beneficiary, with his odds jumping from +100 to -450 overnight.

Let's take a look at the latest NBA MVP odds below.

🏀2026 NBA MVP odds

Player
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	-450
Luka Doncic	+370
Cade Cunningham	+5000
Jalen Brunson	+6000
Victor Wembanyama	+6000
Jaylen Brown	+10000
Tyrese Maxey	+50000
Donovan Mitchell	+50000

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🤖 NBA MVP AI prediction

It should come as no surprise that ChatGPT is a big fan of SGA. Here's what the chatbot had to say about the defending NBA MVP winner:

With voters increasingly sensitive to both team success and two-way impact, SGA has the cleanest path to an MVP narrative this season. He's the best player on a top-two team in the West, elite efficiency from all three levels, and offers real defensive bite at the point of attack. His game scales without drama—he can dominate in isolation or flow within movement-heavy actions, and he gets to the line a ton without forcing bad shots. If Oklahoma City’s depth keeps their net ratings gaudy when he sits, while his on/off still pops, he’ll own the “drives winning” storyline that tends to decide close MVP races.

Jokic is the rightful favorite, but he’s also up against soft voter fatigue and a Nuggets organization that has every incentive to pace him for June. Doncic will put up video-game numbers again, yet the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, and defensive skepticism plus any midseason usage management could ding his case.

By contrast, SGA’s steadiness, durability, and two-way credibility give him multiple avenues to “win” the discourse even if raw counting stats are a tick lower—especially if the Thunder post the league’s best record.

📈 NBA odds over time

💰2026 NBA MVP opening odds

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +150
• Nikola Jokic +350
• Luka Doncic +380
• Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200
• Victor Wembanyama +1200
• Anthony Edwards +2500
• Kevin Durant +5000
• Cade Cunningham +6000
• Jalen Brunson +8000
• Donovan Mitchell +10000
• Paolo Banchero +10000
• Trae Young +15000

NBA MVP betting data

The following data is courtesy of BetMGM.

• Highest ticket percentage: Victor Wembanyama 19.6%
• Highest handle percentage: Luka Doncic 22.2%
• Biggest liability: Victor Wembanyama

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How is the NBA MVP decided?

The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?

🗳️ MVP Voting Process

The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:

• 1st place vote: 10 points
• 2nd place: 7 points
• 3rd place: 5 points
• 4th place: 3 points
• 5th place: 1 point

The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.

📊 What Do Voters Consider?

While there's no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:

• Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares
• Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm
• Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise
• Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter

👀 Voter Biases and Trends

Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:

• “Voter fatigue”: Players who've already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again
• New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners
• Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years

📜NBA MVP betting history

A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.

Season	Player	Opening Odds	Team
2024-25	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+400	Oklahoma City Thunder
2023-24	Nikola Jokic	+450	Denver Nuggets
2022-23	Joel Embiid	+600	Philadelphia 76ers
2021-22	Nikola Jokic	+1600	Denver Nuggets
2020-21	Nikola Jokic	+2500	Denver Nuggets
2019-20	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+210	Milwaukee Bucks
2018-19	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+475	Milwaukee Bucks
2017-18	James Harden	+1100	Houston Rockets
2016-17	Russell Westbrook	+200	Oklahoma City Thunder
2015-16	Stephen Curry	+650	Golden State Warriors
2014-15	Stephen Curry	+1600	Golden State Warriors

NBA MVP odds FAQ

How does the NBA define "valuable"?

The NBA intentionally leaves "valuable" open to the interpretation of voters, who typically look for a dominant player on an elite team.

When is the NBA MVP announced?

NBA voters submit MVP ballots shortly after the regular season concludes, and playoff games are not considered.

Who is the reigning NBA MVP?

Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets won the 2024 NBA MVP.

Who has the most all-time NBA MVP awards?

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds the all-time record with six NBA MVPs.

What are last year's winner's current MVP odds?

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has the second shortest MVP odds at +425.

Who votes for NBA MVP?

The NBA MVP award is voted on by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters from the United States and Canada. This panel consists of approximately 100 members who cover the NBA regularly throughout the season. They vote for the player they believe has been the most valuable to their team based on their performance throughout the regular season.

Who has the most MVP awards in NBA history?

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds the record for winning the most NBA MVP awards in league history. He won the MVP award six times during his legendary career with the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers.

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