So When Does It Usually Cool Off In The Autumn?

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Autumn Began September 22nd, So When Does It Usually Cool Off across West Central and Southwest Florida?
Updated September 16, 2025
Astronomically speaking, autumn began at 2:19 PM EDT on Monday September 22nd. Across West Central and Southwest Florida, however, the temperatures are anything but fall-like. Usually high humidity with dew points in the middle 60s to middle 70s, along with high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s persist well into October. The first shot of cooler drier air is usually rather short lived - lasting only a day or two. The real cool down doesn't usually occur until November. A good way to examine the timing of the first cool down is by looking at overnight low temperatures which are highly dependent on a few factors, not the least being the amount of moisture in the air near the ground, along with the amount of cloud cover and winds. The amount of moisture is determined by looking at the dew point. In general, overnight low temperatures cannot fall below the dew point. Therefore, if the dew points are still in the middle 60s to middle 70s, then the overnight low temperatures are also likely to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s unless a cool front moves through during the night. To see when the first cool front typically moves across the region, the long-term mean dates of specific low temperature thresholds since consistent records began are listed below. Examining the tables and maps below, the long-term mean date of the first shot of cooler drier air appears to be during mid-October. This is when temperatures generally fall into the mid 50s across inland portions of the Nature Coast and below 60 degrees elsewhere across West Central and Southwest Florida. The only exception is near the coast, where the water keeps temperatures higher and these areas take longer to fall below 60 degrees.
Click on a "Site" name below for a detailed graph at each location. Left click an image to magnify, click a second time to return to original size.
Date of First Low Temperature < 60°F
Records
Site Earliest Latest Mean 2024 Began
Arcadia Sep 19, 1910 Nov 23, 2015 Oct 17 Oct 17 1900
Archbold Sep 08, 1997 Nov 23, 2015 Oct 11 Oct 15 1969
Bartow Sep 19, 1981* Nov 23, 2015 Oct 16 Oct 17 1892
Brooksville Sep 09, 1997 Nov 04, 1969* Oct 10 Oct 14 1892
Bushnell Sep 15, 1976* Nov 03, 2019* Oct 09 Oct 16 1948
Chiefland 5 ESE Sep 03, 1972 Oct 25, 1959 Oct 03 Oct 12 1956
Fort Myers Oct 01, 1920 Dec 03, 1986 Oct 28 Nov 16 1902
Inverness 3 SE Sep 11, 1997 Nov 03, 2019* Oct 08 Oct 14 1948
Lakeland Sep 19, 1981 Nov 14, 2015* Oct 19 Oct 17 1915
Mountain Lake Sep 19, 1981 Nov 15, 2003 Oct 15 Oct 17 1935
Myakka Rvr St Pk Sep 19 1981 Nov 23 2015 Oct 16 Oct 17 1956
Plant City Sep 19, 1981 Nov 19, 1911 Oct 14 Oct 17 1893
Punta Gorda Oct 02, 2001* Nov 26, 1948 Oct 24 Oct 17 1914
St. Leo Sep 19, 1981 Nov 10, 2019 Oct 13 Oct 17 1895
St. Petersburg Oct 01, 1920 Dec 04, 1986 Oct 30 Nov 23 1914
Sarasota-Bradenton Sep 19, 1981 Nov 23, 2015 Oct 19 Oct 17 1911
Tampa Sep 19, 1981 Nov 23, 2015 Oct 19 Oct 17 1890
Tarpon Springs Sep 19, 1981* Nov 15, 1919 Oct 15 Oct 17 1892
Venice Oct 02, 2001* Nov 23, 2015 Oct 22 Oct 17 1955
Wauchula Sep 19, 1981 Nov 23, 2015 Oct 17 Oct 17 1933
Winter Haven Sep 19, 1981 Nov 14, 2015* Oct 20 Oct 17 1941
*Last of Multiple Occurrences
Date of First Low Temperature < 55°F
Records
Site Earliest Latest Mean 2024 Began
Arcadia Oct 01, 1920 Dec 04, 1986 Oct 26 Nov 21 1900
Archbold Oct 02, 1976 Dec 19, 2015 Oct 24 Nov 16 1969
Bartow Oct 01, 1920 Nov 25, 1948* Oct 26 Nov 22 1892
Brooksville Sep 27, 2008 Nov 15, 1936 Oct 20 Oct 16 1892
Bushnell Sep 27, 1956 Nov 14, 2015 Oct 17 Oct 17 1948
Chiefland 5 ESE Sep 17, 1999 Nov 14, 2015 Oct 11 Oct 17 1956
Fort Myers Oct 10, 2000 Dec 19, 2022* Nov 08 Nov 22 1902
Inverness 3 SE Sep 20, 1981 Nov 14, 2015 Oct 18 Oct 17 1948
Lakeland Oct 01, 1920 Nov 29, 1948 Oct 28 Oct 17 1915
Mountain Lake Oct 02, 1976 Nov 22, 2015* Oct 24 Oct 17 1935
Myakka Rvr St Pk Oct 02, 1984 Nov 23, 2015 Oct 27 Nov 22 1956
Plant City Sep 21, 1938 Nov 23, 2015 Oct 22 Oct 17 1893
Punta Gorda Oct 10, 2000 Dec 12, 1958 Nov 03 Nov 22 1914
St. Leo Sep 20, 1981 Nov 23, 1922 Oct 24 Nov 16 1895
St. Petersburg Oct 01, 1920 Jan 04, 2022 Nov 13 Nov 30 1914
Sarasota-Bradenton Oct 01, 1920 Dec 04, 1986 Oct 29 Nov 23 1911
Tampa Sep 22, 1897 Dec 05, 1919 Oct 30 Nov 22 1890
Tarpon Springs Sep 22, 1897 Nov 25, 1922 Oct 24 Nov 23 1892
Venice Oct 05, 1974 Dec 03, 1986 Oct 31 Nov 22 1955
Wauchula Oct 07, 2010 Nov 25, 1948 Oct 27 Nov 16 1933
Winter Haven Oct 05, 1974 Dec 03, 1986 Oct 29 Nov 22 1941
*Last of Multiple Occurrences
Date of First Low Temperature < 50°F
Records
Site Earliest Latest Mean 2024 Began
Arcadia Oct 09, 2000 Dec 19, 2022 Nov 04 Nov 22 1900
Archbold Oct 08, 2010 Jan 05, 2016 Nov 02 Nov 22 1969
Bartow Oct 01, 1920 Dec 19, 2022 Nov 06 Nov 22 1892
Brooksville Oct 01, 2009 Dec 04, 1905 Oct 30 Nov 16 1892
Bushnell Oct 02, 2011* Nov 25, 1948 Oct 25 Nov 21 1948
Chiefland 5 ESE Sep 20, 1981 Nov 14, 2015 Oct 17 Oct 17 1956
Fort Myers Oct 21, 1989 Jan 21, 2024 Nov 23 Nov 24 1902
Inverness 3 SE Oct 02, 2011* Nov 25, 1959 Oct 26 Nov 22 1948
Lakeland Oct 01, 1920 Dec 15, 1998* Nov 07 Nov 22 1915
Mountain Lake Oct 08, 1987 Dec 05, 1946 Nov 02 Nov 20 1935
Myakka Rvr St Pk Oct 08, 1987 Dec 19, 2022 Nov 05 Nov 22 1956
Plant City Oct 04, 1929 Dec 04, 1986 Oct 31 Nov 22 1893
Punta Gorda Oct 18, 1977 Jan 10, 1932 Nov 15 Nov 22 1914
St. Leo Oct 07, 1932 Dec 04, 1986 Nov 02 Nov 23 1895
St. Petersburg Oct 24, 1937 Jan 18, 2022 Nov 28 Dec 04 1914
Sarasota-Bradenton Oct 14, 1977 Dec 19, 2022* Nov 10 Dec 01 1911
Tampa Oct 11, 1906 Dec 23, 2021 Nov 10 Nov 30 1890
Tarpon Springs Oct 02, 1920 Dec 05, 1919 Nov 04 Nov 23 1892
Venice Oct 18, 1977 Dec 19, 2022* Nov 13 Nov 23 1955
Wauchula Oct 14, 1977 Dec 19, 2022* Nov 05 Nov 22 1933
Winter Haven Oct 14, 1977 Dec 19, 2022 Nov 09 Nov 23 1941
*Last of Multiple Occurrences
Date of Earliest Freeze (≤ 32°F)
Records
Site Temp Date Began
Arcadia 32° Nov 11, 1956 1900
Archbold 30° Nov 15, 1995* 1969
Bartow 30° Nov 12, 1913 1892
Brooksville 29° Oct 29, 2008* 1892
Bushnell 30° Nov 01, 1954 1948
Chiefland 5 ESE 32° Oct 21, 1989 1956
Fort Myers 32° Dec 10, 1917 1902
Inverness 3 SE 31° Oct 29, 2008 1948
Lakeland 27° Nov 16, 1940 1915
Mountain Lake 26° Nov 16, 1940 1935
Myakka Rvr St Pk 32° Nov 24, 1956 1956
Plant City 32° Nov 04, 1966 1893
Punta Gorda 28° Nov 25, 1970 1914
Sarasota-Bradenton 27° Nov 17, 1940 1911
St. Leo 31° Nov 15, 1969 1895
St. Petersburg 32° Dec 07, 1937 1914
Tampa 31° Nov 16, 1940 1890
Tarpon Springs 31° Nov 16, 1940 1892
Venice 29° Nov 25, 1970 1955
Wauchula 29° Nov 11, 1956 1933
Winter Haven 31° Nov 24, 1970 1941
*Last of Multiple Occurrences
Long Term Mean Date of First Low Temperature at or below 60 degrees Fahrenheit
Long Term Mean Date of First Low Temperature at or below 55 degrees Fahrenheit
Long Term Mean Date of First Low Temperature at or below 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Earliest Date of Low Temperature at or below 32 degrees Fahrenheit
Another way to look at when it may cool down is to take a look at the graphs of the average (based on 1991-2020 Normals) and record low temperatures during autumn at sites across the region. We can see from the graphs below that during some years the first cool down has occurred as early as mid-September when temperatures have fallen into the upper 40s across northern portions of the Nature Coast to the lower 60s south. However, looking at the average lows we see that for the most part it takes until November before low temperatures fall into the mid 50s north to lower 60s south on a consistent basis. Also, on these graphs we can see that on a few rare occasions there has been a freeze across portions of the Nature Coast during the second half of October, with areas further south during November. For an interpretation of the graphs click the smaller graph to the right. Interpretation of Graphs Autumn Low Temperature Graph Legend
All images on this page can be magnified by left clicking on them, and resized back to original size with a second left click.
Chiefland 5 ESE data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Inverness 3 SE data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Bushnell 1 E data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Brooksville Area data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
St Leo data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Tarpon Springs data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Tampa Area data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
St Petersburg Area data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Plant City data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Lakeland Area data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Winter Haven Area data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Bartow Area data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Mountain Lake data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Sarasota-Bradenton Area data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Myakka River State Park data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Venice data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Wauchula 2 N data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Arcadia data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Archbold Bio Stn data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Punta Gorda Area data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
Fort Myers Area data
(Back up to Tables and Maps)
As a side note, for those who miss or would like to see where the foliage has begun to change color across the United States, visit the USDA Forest Service web site listed below. https://www.fs.usda.gov/visit/fall-colors And for an idea of the approximate time of peak fall foliage see the image below: Peak Fall Color Map For more local climate information, visit our web site at https://www.weather.gov/tampabay and go to the Climate and Past Weather drop down menu above the weather forecast graphics.

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