St. Cloud, MN Forecast And Weather Discussion

Thursday, March 5, 2026 2:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

I Blew This 'Mild Period!'

Ugly Side of Mild Weather Yesterday....

There were signs that this mild period would be plagued by clouds, like we were yesterday (see low clouds appear dark overnight, milder than its surroundings, and light during the day, cooler than its surroundings, on the College of DuPage north central US shortwave infrared satellite loop). The fog actually thickened after sunrise and remained through late morning and the low clouds never broke during the afternoon (see: NWS last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). The dew points have climbed into the upper 30's overnight (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), but there is a bit more southeast breeze than we had Tuesday night, so the fog (horizontal line symbol) isn't quite as dense. 

....Which is a Forecast Problem During the Cold Season

 had hinted at this problem in yesterday's discussion, but didn't have the nerve to go with the cloudy scenario. This is a typical problem during the cold season, when Minnesota is on the cool side of a front (in this case, the front in Missouri and Illinois). This situation leads to warmer air trying to push the cooler air out of the way, but warm air is less dense than the cool air, so it tends to move over the top, trapping some of the leftover cool air underneath. That can lead to precipitation on the cool side, but in this case, the problem is the narrow wedge of cool air leftover underneath. Low-level moisture can get trapped in this narrow layer of cool air, allowing low clouds to develop. In this case, the double storm track (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) with a series of storms moving along the southern front has produced rainfall (set NWS Water Prediction Service precipitation map to yesterday's date and last 3 days time period). So, there has been lingering low level moisture to our south through Tuesday night, which moved into southern and central Minnesota yesterday.

This moisture tends to produce low clouds, which cause a seasonal problem. During the summer, when late night thunderstorms develop in the much greater moisture, the longer day length and higher sun angle mean that the more intense heating can often break through the low clouds and heat up the ground, allowing deeper mixing of the low-level air and some sunshine. During the cold season, however, the daytime hours are shorter and the sun angle is lower, so the low clouds may not allow the sun to heat the ground through the low clouds. The worst time for this problem is between November and January, when there is the least sun and it is lowest in the sky, and when there is a snow cover and temperatures are near or above freezing, since melting snow reinforces the trapped moisture near the ground.

We don't have any snow pack, although the one over southern Minnesota just melted, and are about two weeks from the spring equinox (Friday, March 20), but low clouds trapped in leftover cold air can still keep out the sun at times. I saw all of that moisture in Iowa yesterday morning and tempered one high in yesterday's forecast, but didn't give it enough credit. And, when we are cloudy and gloomy, you really notice that the forecast of sunny with highs in the 50's has been blown.

So, I'm Merely Going for Highs in the Middle 40's Today

Today, I'm taking this lesson to task. The fog won't be as dense this morning as it was yesterday (the National Weather Service still has a dense fog advisory, but the worst visibility is to our north (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), thanks to that southeast breeze. But, our air is still coming from central Iowa, where the wet grounds continue to support a low-level cloud bank (again see lighter colors during overnight hours from the College of DuPage north central US shortwave infrared satellite loop). So, I will boost the daytime temperatures a couple of degrees, but I am looking at highs in the middle 40's, rather than the middle 50's.

 

 

Shower (Perhaps Thunderstorm) Chances Late Tonight and Tomorrow

The low clouds will thicken tonight as the next storm, moving into northern California, Nevada, and Utah (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), is still forecast to trigger a Plains storm by Friday night. The forecasts from the various computer models still vary a bit, but not as widely as earlier in the week. This system is now mainly forecast to produce a middle ground with the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms (see Days 1-2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) in southern and eastern Minnesota late tonight and tomorrow, but some of those showers look like they will get into central Minnesota. That means we will have a chance for showers and maybe even a thunderstorm late tonight into tomorrow morning. Then, as the cold front approaches tomorrow afternoon, there will be a good chance for more scattered rain showers late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.

A Chance for Some Snow Friday Night and Saturday, But Will It Be Cold Enough to Stick (For a While)?

Western and northern portions of Minnesota will have enough cold air building in so that the persistent precipitation on the northern and western side of the storm should turn from rain to snow with the best chance for snow tomorrow night into Saturday morning. There still is a question about how quickly the ground temperatures will drop to 34 degrees or colder (which would allow snow to accumulate). Note that the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance tab of 12 UTC, 6 AM, Sat. shows a swath of potential snowfall of 1-2 inches in western and northern Minnesota. However, there is only green probabilities (between a 20 and a 35 percent chance). There is also a small chance for some accumulating freezing rain (change precipitation type to freezing rain) across the northern third of Minnesota, but that shot is 10-30 percent.

Central Minnesota now appears to have a better shot at getting some of the precipitation on the cold side of the storm with the best chance between midnight and early morning Saturday. That should be enough to give us a 50-50 shot at seeing some snowflakes, but the ground temperatures will again be marginal. Our best chance for a coating of wet snow (between a dusting and an inch) would be from pre-dawn to mid-morning Saturday (see  NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance time tab to 00 UTC Sun., 6 Pm Sat.). This is still the more uncertain part of the storm with still some major forecast differences in how strong the low will be and how fast it will move.

Drier Second Half of Saturday With a Shot at 60 Sunday

After Saturday morning, the forecast will become easier from the weekend into Monday. We will have a new air source, air that has been brought down the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies, which should be much drier than what we have seen since yesterday. That should allow a lot more sunshine from midday Saturday through Sunday. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Saturday with highs in the upper 30's to lower 40's, and there will be a strong northwest wind, but conditions will feel better when the sun breaks out.

That cool down will be brief, as much warmer air tries to move in Saturday evening. The much drier air will only produce a few high clouds, so Sunday's highs will be in the upper 50's to lower 60's.

Not Quite as Warm Monday...

A cold front will come through Sunday night, but this system will be in the drier northern storm track, so the rain chances will be small. We will still have a fair amount of sun on Monday, but highs will return to the 45 to 50 degree range.

Back to More Seasonable Cold Second Half of Next Week (Uncertain Precipitation Chances During the Transition)

The long-range forecast for the middle to end of next week is still for at least seasonable cold (highs in the 30's). There is still some question about whether there is a precipitation chance over at least parts of Minnesota during the transition from the warmer air Monday to the cooler air beginning on Wednesday. Note both the area of significant rainfall in southeastern Minnesota on the Days 6-7 panel of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast and the smallest probability color for significant snow in northern Minnesota on the Day 6 panel of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook. My interpretation of the forecast details is that some of Minnesota could be affected by some precipitation as temperatures head down, but none of these chances are certain.

 

 

February and Winter 2025-2026 St. Cloud Weather Summary Available

As noted in the now posted St. Cloud February 2026 and Winter 2025-2026 weather summary, February's warmth cancelled out the colder than average December and January, so the meteorological winter (Dec. 1-Feb. 28, the three coldest months of the year) ended up a fraction of a degree milder than average. Still, the extreme temperature days (highs of zero or colder, lows of -20 or colder) were near average, thanks to the cold outbreak during the second half of January. Even though the snow is gone from central and southern Minnesota, many snow statistics are close to average, including the seasonal St. Cloud snowfall (30.7 inches, 0.4 inch below average through February).

Push Clocks Ahead One Hour Saturday Night

Note that Daylight Savings Time begins at 2 AM Sunday. Push the clocks ahead one hour.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"   

 

 

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head" 

Thursday 3/5/2026: Low clouds and patchy fog through midday, then mostly cloudy with perhaps a sunny break during the afternoon. Still moist, and not as warm as previously forecast. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: ESE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%. 

Thursday Night: Thickening clouds with a chance of late night rain showers. Low: between 38 and 43. (record warm low: 41 in 2000) Winds: ESE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10% evening, 30% late at night.

Friday 3/6/2026: A chance for morning showers and thunderstorms, then mostly cloudy with midday sprinkles, but occasional late day showers. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH in the morning, SW 5-15 MPH midday and early afternoon, becoming NW 5-15 MPH towards evening. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.    

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"    

Friday Night: Cloudy, turning blustery, and colder. A chance for rain and snow showers mixed through the evening, turning over to light snow late at night. Perhaps a coating of snow late at night. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30% evening, 50% late at night.

Saturday 3/7/2026: Clouds and any snow flurries ending early, then becoming sunny by midday, windy through the morning, and not as warm. High: between 38 and 43. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH during the morning, SW 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30% during the early morning, 10% after mid-morning.

Saturday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and milder. Low: between 32 and 37. (record warm low: 38 in 1898) Winds: SW 8-15 MPH evening, 10-20 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 3/8/2026: Sunshine, mixed with some high clouds, breezy, and much warmer. High: between 57 and 63 (record warm high: 66 in 2016). Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and milder. Low: between 35 and 40. (record warm low: 38 in 1898) Winds: SW 8-15 MPH evening, becoming W early morning. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday 3/9/2026: Mixed sun and clouds during the morning, more sunshine during the afternoon, but not as warm. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: becoming NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts during the morning, 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: Seasonably cool by the middle of next week??? Uncertain precipitation chances during the transition???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 5 Thursday through Friday, 3 Friday night, 4 Saturday through Sunday, 2 Sunday night and Monday, 1 Tuesday, 2 Wednesday.   

Yesterday's High: 41°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Thursday): 38°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None

March 5 Historic Data

Temperature Category	High	Low
Average Temperatures	33°F	14°F
Record Temperatures	66°F (2000)	39°F (1983)
	7°F (1943)	-17°F (2003)

Next Update: Friday, March 6, 2026 6 AM