The First Post-debate Polls Say Biden Won - Vox

Skip to main contentThe homepageVoxVox logo

• Explainers
• Politics
• Culture
• Advice
• ListenPodcast
• WatchVideo

MenuThe homepageVoxVox logoNavigation Drawer

• Login / Sign Up

closeCloseSearch

• VideoWatch
• PodcastListen
• CrosswordPlay

• Explainers
• Politics
• Culture
• Advice
• Science
• Technology
• Climate
• Health
• Money
• Life
• Future Perfect
• Newsletters
• Archives

Become a Member

• Facebook
• Instagram
• Youtube
• RSS
• TikTok

VoxVox logoThe first post-debate polls say Biden won

Join Vox and double your impact

Your support goes further this holiday season. When you buy an annual membership or give a one-time contribution, we’ll give a membership to someone who can’t afford access. It’s a simple way for you to support Vox’s journalism and share it with someone who needs it

We rely on readers like you to fund our journalism. Will you support our work and become a Vox Member today?

Join now

• Politics

The first post-debate polls say Biden won

CNN, Data for Progress, and YouGov all found more debate watchers thought Biden won.

by Andrew ProkopUpdated Oct 23, 2020, 4:30 AM UTC

• Share
• Gift

Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty ImagesPart OfThe final 2020 presidential debatesee all updates Andrew Prokop is a senior politics correspondent at Vox, covering the White House, elections, and political scandals and investigations. He’s worked at Vox since the site’s launch in 2014, and before that, he worked as a research assistant at the New Yorker’s Washington, DC, bureau.

The final presidential debate is in the books, and the first polls are in — and they suggest Donald Trump didn’t get the shakeup he desperately needed.

Now, as usual, I will remind you to take these polls with some grains of salt. They are limited to people who actually watched the debate rather than the broader electorate, and they don’t take into account the spin wars and media narratives that will help shape voters’ understanding of what happened.

But of course you crave the instant gratification of learning who “won” shortly after it happened rather than waiting for more rigorous data, so I’ll deliver it to you. The three instant polls we have so far both find that most debate watchers thought Joe Biden won.

CNN conducted its usual instant poll with SSRS, and they found that 53 percent of respondents who watched the debate thought Biden won, and 39 percent thought Trump won. (This poll and the others discussed in this article are different from those simple web polls in which anyone can vote — they’re methodologically sound, albeit somewhat hasty, polls.)

That’s not quite as overwhelming a margin as Biden had in this poll after the first debate — the CNN/SSRS poll then showed 60 percent of watchers thought he won and just 28 percent thought Trump did — but he’ll take it. (CNN’s political director, David Chalian, also pointed out that their sample this time had slightly more Republicans than Democrats, which wasn’t true for the earlier poll.)

A second poll of people who watched Thursday’s debate, conducted by the progressive firm Data for Progress, found a similar result — 52 percent of respondents said they thought Biden won, and 41 percent said they thought Trump won.

Both of these results are fairly similar to Biden’s current lead over Trump in national polling averages — he leads by 9.9 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Finally, a third poll, from YouGov, found the biggest margin for Biden, with 54 percent of debate-watching respondents saying he won while 35 percent saying Trump did.

Overall, these results suggest that Trump’s performance did not do anything to shift the dynamics of the race, in which he is trailing, in his favor. As we may remember from 2016, the final debate doesn’t end the campaign — there is still time for dramatic news events to shake things up, or for voters to change their minds. But that time is ticking away.

See More:

• 2020 Presidential Election
• Donald Trump
• Joe Biden
• Politics

More in: The final 2020 presidential debate

A second Trump term would mean severe and irreversible changes in the climateBy David RobertsCNN’s debate fact-check laid out a “bombardment of dishonesty” from TrumpBy Ella NilsenDonald Trump’s issue with windmills might not be about birdsBy Emily Stewart

Most Popular

1. Elon Musk created a monster that’s tearing the right apart
2. Take a mental break with the newest Vox crossword
3. Why is the US attacking Venezuela?
4. 26 things we think will happen in 2026
5. Why Trump sent in troops to capture Maduro, briefly explained

Today, Explained

Understand the world with a daily explainer, plus the most compelling stories of the day.

Email (required)Sign UpBy submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.Advertiser Content From

This is the title for the native ad

More in Politics

Why Trump sent in troops to capture Maduro, briefly explainedWhy is the US attacking Venezuela?How to kill a rogue AIElon Musk created a monster that’s tearing the right apart26 things we think will happen in 2026Inside Trump’s “no data, just vibes” approach to sciencePoliticsTwo hours agoPoliticsTwo hours agoWhy Trump sent in troops to capture Maduro, briefly explained

Here’s how tensions escalated between the US and Venezuela before Saturday’s strikes.

By Joshua KeatingPolitics1:05 PM UTCPolitics1:05 PM UTCWhy is the US attacking Venezuela?

The five biggest questions about a massive military buildup.

By Joshua KeatingPoliticsJan 2PoliticsJan 2How to kill a rogue AI

Shutting off the internet? Detonating a nuke in space? None of the options are very appealing.

By Joshua KeatingPoliticsJan 2PoliticsJan 2Elon Musk created a monster that’s tearing the right apart

X put the right on top in the culture war. Now it’s turning them against each other.

By Andrew ProkopFuture PerfectJan 1Future PerfectJan 126 things we think will happen in 2026

From the state of democracy to the chance of a recession, here’s what could happen in 2026.

By Bryan Walsh, Izzie Ramirez and 11 moreClimateDec 31, 2025ClimateDec 31, 2025Inside Trump’s “no data, just vibes” approach to science

8 ways the administration has undermined data collection this year.

By Umair Irfan, Dylan Scott and 2 moreAdvertiser Content From

This is the title for the native ad