The Lindy Effect - ModelThinkers

"Use laws that are old, but food that is fresh." – Periander of Corinth.

This quote from 500 BC captures The Lindy Effect which is a reminder that the classics are classics for a reason.

The Lindy Effect essentially states that the longer a non-perishable item has been around, the longer it’s likely to persist into the future.

CLASSICS LAST.

The Lindy Effect was named after a New York deli and originally referenced the career prospects of comedians — see Origins below for more. The definition was since broadened so that today The Lindy Effect states that the future life expectancy of a non-perishable item is proportional to its current age. It reflects the common adage that things that have stood the ‘test of time’ are things that you can rely on.

The effect does not relate to perishable or living items that experience natural decay — so, if you're hitting your nineties, the sad truth is that your life expectancy is very limited. Instead, the model refers to non-perishables such as technology, books, businesses and ideas.

This model serves as a useful prompt to take a big picture view of trends and change. It can be challenging to understand the implications or complexities of a new trend as it is unfolding but, over time, you'll be able to understand it's potential and impact.

ROBUSTNESS PROPORTIONAL TO LIFE.

Nassim Taleb, the author of Antifragile, captured this model well:

"If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years.

"This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not “ageing” like persons, but “ageing” in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!"

Whether you're exploring bitcoin versus gold, or electric versus gasoline engines, applying the Lindy Effect will encourage you to 'wait and see', because with each year a 'newcomer' survives it implies a proportionate increase in its longevity. In other words, new initiatives become less fragile with every year they persist.

IN YOUR LATTICEWORK.

The Lindy Effect is a useful reminder to respect the momentum of past trends and attitudes. You can combine it with the Overton Window to better understand change versus inertia in politics, or with Moore's Law to consider what will change and what will not in the context of rapid technological innovation.

As counters to this model, you might want to contrast it to Entropy to better understand the universal pull towards disorder, and Creative Destruction to identify opportunities for radical disruption from within current systems.