What Does The Percentage Of Rain Mean On Weather Forecasts ... - Metro

Home » What Does The Precipitation Percentage Mean » What Does The Percentage Of Rain Mean On Weather Forecasts ... - Metro

Maybe your like

London’s faced some pretty torrential rain of late (Picture: PA)

The British weather can be unpredictable at the best of times, shifting from baking sunshine to torrential rain within a matter of days or even hours.

So it’s good to know that we can rely on the forecasts – on TV, online or even on our phone’s weather app – to let us know if we should take an umbrella with us when we’re setting out.

You’ve probably noticed, though, that when it comes to rain, it’s predicted by way of a percentage.

Just what does that percentage mean when it’s on forecasts – and on the app on your phone?

What does the percentage of rain mean on weather forecasts and the iPhone app?

Sign up for all of the latest stories

Start your day informed with Metro's News Updates newsletter or get Breaking News alerts the moment it happens.

Scarlett Moffatt recently caused a bit of a stir on TikTok when she suggested that a ’30 per cent chance of rain’ listed on a weather app meant that rain would fall in 30 per cent of the surrounding area.

However, that’s not actually true – as the percentage refers to the chance of rain falling in a specific region, rather than how much rain might actually fall.

Weatherman Alex Deakin said in a TikTok: ‘Certainly for the Met Office app, the percentage of rain means the chance of rain at that time for that location.

That percentage doesn’t mean how much of your area can expect rain (Picture: metro.co.uk)

‘So 60 per cent means a 60 per cent chance of rain, 40 per cent chance of dry.

There are different ways of expressing percentages and in the USA they do use the area one, but generally not here in the UK.

‘So if you’ve got the Met Office app, that’s one less thing to worry about; mind unblown.’

The Met Office have gone into further detail on their website, explaining the probability of rain when viewed in a percentage form.

‘In weather forecasting, suppose the Met Office says that the probability of rain tomorrow in your region is 80%…wat they are saying is there is an 80% chance of rain occurring at any one place in the region, such as in your garden.

If it doesn’t rain in your garden tomorrow, then the 80% forecast wasn’t wrong, because it didn’t say rain was certain. But if you look at a long run of days, on which the Met Office said the probability of rain was 80%, you’d expect it to have rained on about 80% of them.

More Trending

  1. A view of Pound Lane in Willesden, London

    Woman, 50, stabbed to death in 'busy' area of north London

    Channel: UK UK 7 hours ago By Luke Alsford
  2. Three drunk women 'trash hotel lobby and spit at staff'
  3. Sarah Ferguson told Jeffrey Epstein 'marry me' months after release from prison
  4. Afghan man asks girl, 12, how old she is 'before raping her near playground'

‘The Met Office checks their probability forecasts against what really happened in this way, and they do pretty well.’

So now you know…

Arrow MORE: Vet addresses myth around giving your dog ice cubes in hot weather

Follow Metro across our social channels, on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

Share your views in the comments below.

Comment now Comments Add Metro as a Preferred Source on Google Add as preferred source

News Updates

Stay on top of the headlines with daily email updates.

Email I agree to receive newsletters from Metro I agree to receive newsletters from Metro Sign UpSign Up

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Your information will be used in line with our Privacy Policy

HomedividerNewsdividerUK Related topics
  • Weather
Play Video Extra wide shot of a pier with part of it missing

Storm Ingrid washes away historic pier and crumbles sea wall after 60mph winds hit UK

Channel: UK UK January 25, 2026 By Sarah Ping Play Video Billy Vernon in his flooded home in Weycroft near Axminster, Devon as the river Axe bursts its banks following heavy rain from storm Chandra. January 27, 2026.

Dad and two sons trapped in house after 'flood water pours through windows' 

Channel: UK UK 5 days ago By Noora Mykkanen

Must Read

Woman, 40, who died after 'being punched in the face' is named and pictured 

Channel: UK UK 6 days ago By Sarah Ping A person as their passport scanned whilst using an Automated European Union Entry/Exit System (EES) kiosk during a press preview on the rollout of the EU's new Entry-Exit System (EES) at Eurotunnel

Dual citizen Brits have just weeks to prepare for major UK passport change

Channel: UK UK January 25, 2026 By Molly Lee Play Video

Search for hero who stopped assault on group of women

Channel: UK UK 2 days ago By Sarah Hooper Play Video Eight fire engines and around 60 firefighters are tackling a fire at a commercial building on #Kensington High Street. Part of the rooftop area is alight. Please avoid the area while the incident is ongoing.

Celebrity hotspot Kensington Roof Gardens badly damaged by fire

Channel: UK UK 6 days ago By Sarah Hooper Play Video A screen grab taken from CCTV dated 22/07/25 issued by Warwickshire Police of Ahmad Mulakhil and Mohammad Kabir seen leaving a park before and after the alleged rape of a 12-year-old girl in Nuneaton, Warwickshire. The images of Mohammad and Ahmad were part of a time-line video presentation played to jurors at Warwick Crown Court on Friday. Issue date: Friday January 30, 2026. PA Photo. Photo credit should read: Warwickshire Police/PA Wire NOTE TO EDITORS: This handout photo may only be used in for editorial reporting purposes for the contemporaneous illustration of events, things or the people in the image or facts mentioned in the caption. Reuse of the picture may require further permission from the copyright holder.

Afghan man asks girl, 12, how old she is 'before raping her near playground'

Channel: UK UK 2 days ago By Brooke Davies A view of Pound Lane in Willesden, London

Woman, 50, stabbed to death in 'busy' area of north London

Channel: UK UK 7 hours ago By Luke Alsford Jennifer Anne Brown who sadly died following a crash on the A55 at the Conwy Tunnel

Tributes to mum with 'smile that could light up any room' killed in crash

Channel: UK UK 2 days ago By Ryan Prosser Play Video CCTV footage showing the moment three drunk women smash up a hotel lobby in Bournemouth

Three drunk women 'trash hotel lobby and spit at staff'

Channel: UK UK 12 hours ago By Noora Mykkanen

Grandmother shot dead in 'revenge for sons stealing drug dealer's phone'

Channel: UK UK 4 days ago By Josh Milton Shelby Elise Caughman

Scientist who wasn't invited to her work Christmas party loses discrimination claim

Channel: UK UK 4 days ago By Josh Milton

Trending Now

Read more storiesRead more stories
  1. Elena Walsh, smiling while holding a drink.

    Six British holidaymakers killed by bacterial outbreak on paradise island

    Channel: World World 13 hours ago By Luke Alsford
  2. Man, 24, goes to hospital with 'WW1 bomb stuck in rectum'
  3. Families say fears over paedophile nursery worker were 'brushed aside'
  4. Woman, 50, stabbed to death in 'busy' area of north London
  5. Elon Musk tweets through the night after emails to Jeffrey Epstein emerge

Metro Shorts

metro deals

more offersmore offers strong>Bannatyne Spa/strong>Bannatyne SpaSpa day for two with treatments, lunch & prosecco — save up to 57% off. strong>Mystery Escape/strong>Mystery EscapeHotel stay with return flights from as low as £92pp — save on worldwide holiday packages. strong>Beach Retreat (Lanzarote)/strong>Beach Retreat (Lanzarote)4* Lanzarote beach holiday with flights — save up to 58%. strong>UK Getaway/strong>UK Getaway4* Radisson Blu Durham stay with breakfast, spa access & late checkout — save 60% off. strong>Drive Supercars/strong>Drive Supercars 3–12 lap supercar driving experiences from £16.99 — save up to 65%.  Close Overlay

News Updates

Stay on top of the headlines with daily email updates.

Email I agree to receive newsletters from Metro I agree to receive newsletters from Metro Sign UpSign Up

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Your information will be used in line with our Privacy Policy

Tag » What Does The Precipitation Percentage Mean