When Will Jacob DeGrom Return And What Kind Of Production Can ...

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Danny AbrianoWed, April 6, 2022 at 12:30 PM UTC·3 min read

The Mets will be without Jacob deGrom not only for Opening Day but for a lot longer due to a right shoulder injury. And for a team with World Series aspirations, the loss of deGrom is distressing.

Following the four-week shutdown deGrom is currently in (the ace discussed the injury and expressed his frustration Sunday), he'll be evaluated to determine the next steps.

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What will those next steps be? How long will deGrom be out of action? Will his stuff be diminished when he returns? And what are the chances of re-injury once he's back?

We spoke with Deepak Chona, MD, a Stanford-trained orthopedic sports surgeon and founder of SportsMedAnalytics, to get his insight.

"DeGrom is officially out for four weeks with a stress reaction in his scapula (aka stress fracture in the shoulder blade). His interview answers give the impression that the injury has not been brewing for a long time, which bodes well for Mets fans," explained Chona, who does not personally treat deGrom. "Return-to-play timelines for these typically depend on how far things progressed before getting treatment."Resting the shoulder is the key to phase 1 of recovery. We don’t know which part of his scapula is injured, but generally this bone can heal reliably with rest. [When the four weeks are up] deGrom’s doctors will re-evaluate him, and I’d expect his pain to diminish significantly as the inflammatory reaction dies down."

According to Chona, if everything goes according to plan -- which is something Chona said is "by far the most likely outcome" -- deGrom will begin some light throwing after the four-week evaluation.

"Bone healing itself is a six-week process, so you wouldn’t want to see him going full speed before then," Chona said. "If he did, he’d put himself at an unnecessarily high risk of re-injury. Five-to-six weeks from now, most MLB doctors would get a repeat scan -- either CT or MRI -- to confirm that his shoulder blade is fully healed. If all looks good, that’s when he’d be cleared to ramp up to full speed as tolerated.

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"That process varies from player to player, but typically involves about two-to-four weeks of progressively harder throwing. If he has no setbacks, expect to see deGrom back in game action six-to-eight weeks from now."

Chona further explains that while six-to-eight weeks is a long time to be out, there is a silver lining. Specifically, the chances of a full recovery are good -- as are the chances of deGrom being his dominant self when he's back.

"Most scapula stress fractures that are caught early heal relatively reliably if the player strictly adheres to the rest and rehab protocol," said Chona. "Any time there is an extended period off followed by a ramp back up, there is an accompanying risk of overdoing it and having a setback. However, as long as deGrom progresses slowly, you should expect a full recovery of his prior pitching performance with respect to both velocity and control.

"Furthermore, once he’s back, I wouldn’t expect this to act up again midseason. DeGrom at age 33 is not exactly young for an MLB pitcher, but he’s shown the ability to bounce back before. We have no reason to expect this to be much different."

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