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Artificial Intelligence and Its Potential Effects on the Economy and the Federal Budget

Because artificial intelligence has the potential to change how businesses and the federal government provide goods and services, it could affect economic growth, employment and wages, and the distribution of income in the economy. Such changes could in turn affect the federal budget. The direction of those effects—whether they increased or decreased federal revenues or spending—along with their size and timing, are uncertain. In this report, CBO provides an overview of the channels through which the adoption of AI could affect the U.S. economy and the federal budget.

• The Risks of Climate Change to the United States in the 21st Century
• CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2027
• Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2025 to 2034
• Extending Medicaid and CHIP Coverage for Children: Long-Run Budgetary Effects of the President’s 2025 Budget Proposal
• An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Deficits and Debt From 1984 to 2023
• Long-Term Implications of the 2025 Future Years Defense Program

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MAJOR RECURRING REPORTS

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Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2025 to 2034

Monthly Budget Review: November 2024

CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2025 to 2034

Long-Term Implications of the 2025 Future Years Defense Program

Effects of Automatic Stabilizers on the Federal Budget: 2024 to 2034

CBO’s Recent Publications and Work in Progress as of September 30, 2024

An Analysis of the President’s 2025 Budget

The Distribution of Household Income in 2021

Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2025

CBO’s 2024 Long-Term Projections for Social Security

Sequestration Update Report: August 2024

Expired and Expiring Authorizations of Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2024

An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034

Transparency at CBO: Plans for 2024 and a Review of 2023

Final Report on the Troubled Asset Relief Program

Legislation Enacted in the First Session of the 118th Congress That Affects Mandatory Spending or Revenues

The Congressional Budget Office’s Request for Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2025

The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054

The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054

The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2023

The U.S. Military’s Force Structure: Fiscal Year 2024 Update to Personnel Numbers and Costs

An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2024 Shipbuilding Plan

Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance: 2023 to 2033

Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2023 to 2032

CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2023 Update

Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, May 2023

Federal Mandatory Spending for Means-Tested Programs, 2009 to 2029

Public Spending on Transportation and Water Infrastructure, 1956 to 2017

A Review of CBO’s Activities in 2014 Under the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act

Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output in 2014

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• Budget
• Economy
• Health Care
• Taxes

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• ReportArtificial Intelligence and Its Potential Effects on the Economy and the Federal BudgetDecember 20, 2024
• Cost EstimateH.R. 10545, American Relief Act, 2025December 20, 2024
• Cost EstimateH.R. 7931, Preserving Emergency Access in Key Sites ActDecember 20, 2024
• Cost EstimateH.R. 8235, Rural Physician Workforce Preservation ActDecember 20, 2024
• Cost EstimateH.R. 8244, Ensuring Seniors’ Access to Quality Care ActDecember 20, 2024

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• H.R. 10545, American Relief Act, 2025December 20, 2024
• H.R. 7931, Preserving Emergency Access in Key Sites ActDecember 20, 2024
• H.R. 8235, Rural Physician Workforce Preservation ActDecember 20, 2024
• H.R. 8244, Ensuring Seniors’ Access to Quality Care ActDecember 20, 2024
• H.R. 8245, Rural Hospital Stabilization ActDecember 20, 2024

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• Artificial Intelligence and Its Potential Effects on the Economy and the Federal BudgetDecember 20, 2024
• The Risks of Climate Change to the United States in the 21st CenturyDecember 19, 2024
• CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2027December 18, 2024
• Effects of Illustrative Policies That Would Increase TariffsDecember 18, 2024
• CBO Explains How It Incorporates Administrative and Judicial Actions When Updating Its Baseline Projections and Preparing Cost EstimatesDecember 16, 2024

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• Shipbuilding, the Congress, and the Shipbuilding Industrial BaseDecember 11, 2024
• CBO’s Model for Estimating the Effects on New Investment of Deductions to Recover the Cost of CapitalDecember 4, 2024
• How the Expiring Individual Income Tax Provisions in the 2017 Tax Act Affect CBO’s Economic ForecastDecember 4, 2024
• Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and Homeowner’s InsuranceDecember 3, 2024
• The Distribution of Household Income in 2021November 21, 2024

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