COVID-19 Is A Persistent Reallocation Shock

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COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock
  • Jose Maria Barrero
  • Nicholas Bloom
  • Steven J. Davis
  • Brent H. Meyer
AEA Papers and Proceedings vol. 111, May 2021 (pp. 287–91) Download Full Text PDF
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Abstract

Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods (looking back 12 months and ahead 12 months) have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. Second, as of December 2020, firm-level forecasts of sales revenue growth over the next year imply a continuation of recent changes, not a reversal. Third, COVID-19 shifted relative employment growth trends in favor of industries with a high capacity for employees to work from home.

Citation

Barrero, Jose Maria, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Brent H. Meyer. 2021. "COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock." AEA Papers and Proceedings 111: 287–91. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20211110 Choose Format: BibTeX EndNote Refer/BibIX RIS Tab-Delimited

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  • I12 Health Behavior
  • D22 Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
  • L25 Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
  • J21 Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
  • J23 Labor Demand

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