Introducing FM XG - Football Manager Analytics

Sometimes when you have imperfect data and suboptimal systems to get at it you need to assess the viability and effort required. Ultimately it is too time consuming for the benefits to extract actual xG from FM20.

So what are the alternatives? The closest alternative that I can come up with is the below. This will give us a decent view of xG whilst not being too taxing.

So here is my FMxG approach:

I have decided that the best way forward is the above. This has its limitations and does not include defender and goalkeeper positioning in the data, however, the output appears to be holding up so far. This method is quicker than the original method that I embarked on and can easily be done at the end of each game.

The process:

1. Go to the analysis tab on a match that you want to analyse.
2. Generate the shots graphic.
3. Take a screenshot and overlay the xG distance data.
4. Remove penalties from your data.
5. Count the shots in each area and total the amount
6. Shots outwith the angle should be considered separately, in the example here I have rated the chance as 0.3 however typically angles generate low quality chances in the 0.01 zone.
7. Use the data at periodic times to understand the quality of the chances that you are making.
8. Monitor tactical changes and the impact that this has on your xG.

For an additional data point you could also map the xG scores to players so that you can understand individual impact on FMxG.

I will leave it there and post again when I have completed the analysis of my own save using this model. Early signs are that this will help me decide on tactics and players going into next season.

You probably are wondering why James Tavernier (2) is having shots from central areas, this was part of my strategy where I deployed IWB’s this helps increase cutbacks and passes into the box and also helps keep possession and provide cover centrally for roaming midfielders. I tend to only use them in conjunction with a half-back, but that’s a discussion for another day!

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