The Best Of Two Worlds: Selection Strategies For Vice-Presidential ...

In all elections, the dispute to be a candidate precedes the competition for votes. In presidential elections, the candidate is selected first and afterwards the running mate, chosen by a party or the presidential candidate. The literature shows that this decision is taken due to the need for a candidate who can balance the ticket (POLSBY et al., 2016POLSBY, Nelson W.; WILDAVSKY, Aaron; SCHIER, Steven E.; HOPKINS, David A. (2016), Presidential elections: strategies and structures of American politics. New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. 320 pp..; SIGELMAN and WAHLBECK, 1997SIGELMAN, Lee and WAHLBECK, Paul J. (1997), The ‘veepstakes’: strategic choice in presidential running mate selection. American Political Science Review. Vol. 91, Nº 04, pp. 855-864.) or who has a capacity for governance to help the president or also replace him or her, if necessary (BAUMGARTNER, 2016BAUMGARTNER, Jody C. (2016), Rejecting more of the same? The 2016 Veepstakes. PS: Political Science & Politics. Vol. 49, Nº 04, pp. 775-781.; 2012; HILLER and KRINER, 2008HILLER, Mark and KRINER, Douglas (2008), Institutional change and the dynamics of vice-presidential selection. Presidential Studies Quarterly. Vol. 38, Nº 03, pp. 401-421.).

The recent impeachment process of President Dilma Rousseff (PT), after which the Vice-President Michel Temer (PMDB) assumed the presidency, reopened the debate about the selection of candidates for the position (UGGLA, 2020UGGLA, Fredrik (2020), The politics of vice-presidential selection in Latin America. Electoral Studies. Vol. 65, pp. 01-09.). The selection of a vice-presidential candidate is a phenomenon in itself. For example, after two declinations1 1 Jair Bolsonaro invited the evangelical senator Magno Malta (cf. https://tinyurl.com/y85yhabc) and the lawyer Janaína Paschoal, responsible for the petition for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff (cf. https://tinyurl.com/ycd7c785), however, both refused his invitation. , the presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) received the acceptance of the reserve general, Hamilton Mourão (PRTB), known for controversial comments in support of military intervention2 2 Cf. https://tinyurl.com/ybsarmjb. . Finally, the running mate selection represented a reinforcement of the conservative discourse on the part of Bolsonaro’s electorate, aimed at those sympathizing with military rhetoric (MOURÃO, 2018MOURÃO, Hamilton (2018), Vice, General Mourão diz que agrega estabilidade a Bolsonaro. [Entrevista concendida a] Talita Fernandes. Folha de São Paulo. Eleições 2018. São Paulo, 10 August 2018. Available at < https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018/08/vice-general-mourao-diz-que-agrega-estabilidade-a-bolsonaro.shtml >. Accessed on 26 May, 2020.https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018... ).

The strategies adopted in vice-presidential selection are not a recent phenomenon. In 1994, the presidential candidate Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) chose a vice-president from the Northeast with the purpose of attracting the electorate from that region, where he was not well-known (SOUZA, 1994SOUZA, Josias de (1994), Dia de campanha. Folha de São Paulo. Caderno Especial: Supereleição. São Paulo. August, 03, 1994, p. 03.). In 2002, after having lost three elections, Luís Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) decided to change strategy by inviting a textile businessman from Minas Gerais, José Alencar, with the intention of signaling an approximation with the business class, historically hostile to his candidacy (CANTANHÊDE, 2010CANTANHÊDE, Eliane (2010), José Alencar - Amor à vida: a saga de um brasileiro. Rio de Janeiro: Sextante. 364 pp..; ZANINI, 2002ZANINI, Fábio (2002), PT quer Alencar como seu ‘avalista’. Folha de São Paulo. Primeiro Caderno: Brasil. São Paulo. June, 16, 2002, p. 04.).

In general, the literature treats in a descriptive form the criteria and strategies for the selection of vice-presidential candidates (BAUMGARTNER, 2016BAUMGARTNER, Jody C. (2016), Rejecting more of the same? The 2016 Veepstakes. PS: Political Science & Politics. Vol. 49, Nº 04, pp. 775-781.; 2012; 2008; HILLER and KRINER, 2008HILLER, Mark and KRINER, Douglas (2008), Institutional change and the dynamics of vice-presidential selection. Presidential Studies Quarterly. Vol. 38, Nº 03, pp. 401-421.; LOPES, 2020LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113.; MIERES and PAMPÍN, 2015MIERES, Pablo and PAMPÍN, Ernesto (2015), La trayectoria de los vicepresidentes en los regímenes presidencialistas de América. Revista de Estudios Políticos. Nº 167, pp. 99-132.; SIGELMAN and WAHLBECK, 1997SIGELMAN, Lee and WAHLBECK, Paul J. (1997), The ‘veepstakes’: strategic choice in presidential running mate selection. American Political Science Review. Vol. 91, Nº 04, pp. 855-864.). However, there is no study which categorically systematizes candidates for the position. Apart from this, the studies predominantly look at the US case3 3 With the exception of Pignataro and Taylor-Robinson (2019), who deal with the selection of candidates in Costa Rica, Mieres and Pampín (2015) who analyze vice-presidents elected in the presidential systems on the American continent, including the United States, while Uggla (2020) analyzes the countries of Latin America, and Lopes (2020) who focused on the Brazilian case. , which although it shares the same system of government, has an institutional arrangement consisting of a biparty system which adopts the electoral college as a method of election for president, which is different from the other presidential countries in the region. It is thus necessary to look beyond the United States: what is the most frequent strategy in the selection of vice-presidential candidates?

Systematizing vice-presidential candidates is the first step to understanding the impact of political choices on the behavior of the ticket’s members in a prospective government. In relation to this, the US experience shows that the selection led by a presidential candidate can influence the level of compatibility and loyalty of the members of the formula (BAUMGARTNER, 2006BAUMGARTNER, Jody C. (2006), The American vice presidency reconsidered. Westport: Praeger. 184 pp..). The greater the integration of the vice-president in Executive activities, the greater their importance within the government (GOLDSTEIN, 2008GOLDSTEIN, Joel K. (2008), The rising power of the modern vice presidency. Presidential Studies Quarterly. Vol. 38, Nº 03, pp. 374-389.). On the other hand, a troubled relationship between the president and the vice-president can lead to the isolation of the latter or even their departure from the administration (SERRAFERO, 2018SERRAFERO, Mario Daniel (2018), La vicepresidencia y las coaliciones politicas: el caso de Argentina. Revista de Sociologia e Política. Vol. 26, Nº 65, pp. 15-38.; SRIBMAN, 2009SRIBMAN, Ariel (2009), Claroscuros en la cúspide del poder. Los vicepresidentes argentinos (1983-2009). Available at < https://campus.usal.es/~dpublico/areacp/Seminario%202009-2010/Sribman2009.pdf >. Accessed on January, 27, 2018.https://campus.usal.es/~dpublico/areacp/... ).

In relation to the party system, in Latin America, the main characteristic of presidential multiparty systems is high fragmentation, which encourages the configuration of presidential tickets distinct from the US example: mixed tickets are common in the region with presidential and vice-presidential candidates from different parties (UGGLA, 2020UGGLA, Fredrik (2020), The politics of vice-presidential selection in Latin America. Electoral Studies. Vol. 65, pp. 01-09.), while in the United States, all presidential tickets contain candidates from the same party, a formation known as a pure ticket.

On the continent, Brazil stands out as the country with the largest number of parties and its high level of party fragmentation is an outlier (NICOLAU, 2012NICOLAU, Jairo (2012), Sistemas eleitorais. Rio de Janeiro: Editora FGV. 116 pp..). Moreover, like other countries in the region, it is a recent democracy. In other words, only in 1989, after 25 years of military dictatorship, did the population return to electing their president. Furthermore, it is one of the few countries on the continent in which being a member of a political party is required to run for any position, including the vice-presidency. Finally, Brazil has the highest proportion of mixed tickets among the leading competitors (first and second place): between 1985 and 2018, 83% of vice-presidential candidates were from a different party to the presential candidate (UGGLA, 2020UGGLA, Fredrik (2020), The politics of vice-presidential selection in Latin America. Electoral Studies. Vol. 65, pp. 01-09.).

In this type of institutional arrangement, presidential candidates are encouraged to look for allies, due to the difficulty in electing majorities, stimulating the formation of alliance since the election (CHASQUETTI, 2000CHASQUETTI, Daniel (2000), Balotaje y coaliciones en América Latina. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Politica. Nº 12, pp. 09-33.; KELLAM, 2017KELLAM, Marisa (2017), Why pre-electoral coalitions in presidential systems? British Journal of Political Science. Vol. 47, Nº 02, pp. 391-411.). Amongst other benefits, electoral coordination between parties helps with the feasibility of the presidential campaign in many regions (BORGES and TURGEON, 2017BORGES, André and TURGEON, Mathieu (2017), Presidential coattails in coalitional presidentialism. Party Politics. Vol. 25, Nº 02, pp. 192-202.), which is essential for a candidacy in a country of the size of Brazil.

Among the few studies which have analyzed Latin America, Mieres and Pampín (2015)MIERES, Pablo and PAMPÍN, Ernesto (2015), La trayectoria de los vicepresidentes en los regímenes presidencialistas de América. Revista de Estudios Políticos. Nº 167, pp. 99-132. and Uggla (2020)UGGLA, Fredrik (2020), The politics of vice-presidential selection in Latin America. Electoral Studies. Vol. 65, pp. 01-09. indirectly cover the Brazilian case, since they both carried out comparative research among the Latin American countries. Mieres and Pampín (2015)MIERES, Pablo and PAMPÍN, Ernesto (2015), La trayectoria de los vicepresidentes en los regímenes presidencialistas de América. Revista de Estudios Políticos. Nº 167, pp. 99-132. studied the selection criteria of elected vice-presidents, excluding the other candidates, who also had chances of victory in the electoral contest and used selection strategies. On the other hand, Uggla (2020)UGGLA, Fredrik (2020), The politics of vice-presidential selection in Latin America. Electoral Studies. Vol. 65, pp. 01-09. analyzed the determinants of the selection of independent candidates and from other parties, however, he only looked at those who came first or second place in the election, ignoring the other candidates. Lopes (2020)LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113. used the same approach, but her analysis dealt with the Brazilian case, focusing on a desegregated analysis of selection criteria.

Based on this gap, this paper proposes an index which allows the investigation of the systematic components present in the selection of candidates for the position. Furthermore, unlike previous papers, this study expands the analysis to all vice-presidential candidates in Brazilian elections between 1989 and 2018, with the purpose of providing a more complete study of the profile of the selected candidates. Although this is a descriptive study, this initiative is important as it deals with a theme that is still little explored.

The article starts with a general presentation of the candidate selection process for the presidential ticket. After this the criteria and strategies for the choice of vice-presidential candidates in the literature are outlined. In the third section the description of the candidate profile for the position is presented with the subsequent construction of the Vice-Presidential Candidate Profile Index (VPCPI). After the presentation of the data and the methods used, the most frequent strategies and selection criteria are reported and afterwards the profile of candidates is identified in accordance with the index developed in the previous section. Finally, the text lists the implications of the findings for future research about the role of vice-presidential candidates in elections.

Candidate selection for the Executive branch in presidential systems: the Brazilian case

The literature which deals with the selection of candidates for Executive positions discusses the adoption of different selection mechanisms. The purpose is to assess the level (FREIDENBERG, 2003FREIDENBERG, Flavia (2003), Selección de candidatos y democracia interna en los partidos de América Latina. Lima: Asociación Civil Transparencia. 43 pp..; FREIDENBERG and LÓPEZ, 2002FREIDENBERG, Flavia and LÓPEZ, Francisco Sánchez (2002), Como se escolhe um candidato a presidente? Regras e práticas nos partidos políticos da América Latina. Opinião Pública. Vol. 08, Nº 02, pp. 158-188.) and the process of democratization over time, based on electoral reform (FREIDENBERG, 2015FREIDENBERG, Flavia (2015), La reina de las reformas: las elecciones internas a las candidaturas presidenciales en América Latina. In: Las reformas políticas a las organizaciones de partidos. Edited by FREIDENBERG, Flavia and MUÑOZ-POGOSSIAN, Betilde. México: INE, TEPJF, OEA, Instituto Iberoamérica y SAAP. pp. 31-91.). Drawing on the theoretical model of Rahat and Hazan (2001)RAHAT, Gideon and HAZAN, Reuven Y. (2001), Candidate selection methods: an analytical framework. Party Politics. Vol. 07, Nº 03, pp. 297-322., this assessment is based on four pillars: candidacy (who), selectorate (by whom), place (where), and the nomination process (how). Based on this, the selection instruments are assessed in accordance with inclusivity, decentralization, and control of representation. Thus, the more inclusive, decentralized, and reduced the control of representation, the more democratic the candidate selection will be. The opposite is also true: the more exclusive, centralized, and enhanced the control of representation, the less democratic the selection will be (RAHAT and HAZAN, 2001RAHAT, Gideon and HAZAN, Reuven Y. (2001), Candidate selection methods: an analytical framework. Party Politics. Vol. 07, Nº 03, pp. 297-322.).

In general, a country’s constitution and electoral law establish restrictions for candidacy. In Brazil, to run for president or vice-president a candidate must be a native-born Brazilian, be in full exercise of their political rights, be a member of a political party, and be at least 35 years old4 4 See Art. 14 of the 1988 Federal Constitution. . While some Latin American countries, such as Argentina and Uruguay, have adopted compulsory primary elections for political parties to choose presidential candidates, Brazilian law does not impose a selection mechanism, leaving parties free to use the mechanism of their choice.

Some parties such as the PT, the MDB, and the PSDB, stipulate in their statutes that national conventions are responsible for choosing presidential candidates either by election or proclamation when there is only one competitor (FREIDENBERG, 2015FREIDENBERG, Flavia (2015), La reina de las reformas: las elecciones internas a las candidaturas presidenciales en América Latina. In: Las reformas políticas a las organizaciones de partidos. Edited by FREIDENBERG, Flavia and MUÑOZ-POGOSSIAN, Betilde. México: INE, TEPJF, OEA, Instituto Iberoamérica y SAAP. pp. 31-91.). In reality, choosing by proclamation is more frequent. Only in 2002 did the ‘Partido dos Trabalhadores’ (PT – Workers Party) hold primary elections to select its presidential candidate (POWER and MOCHEL, 2008POWER, Timothy J. and MOCHEL, Marilia (2008), Political recruitment in an executive-centric system: presidents, ministers, and governors in Brazil. In: Pathways to power: political recruitment and candidate selection in Latin America. Edited by SIAVELIS, Peter M. and MORGENSTERN, Scott. Pennsylvania: Penn State Press. pp. 218-240.).

In Brazil the vice-presidency appeared for the first time in the 1891 Constitution, when the occupant was elected in an independent election by direct vote. In the 1934 and 1937 Constitutions, during the Getúlio Vargas regime, the vice-presidency was abolished. In 1946, the position reappeared and remained adopting the same criteria as previous elections. Only in 1967, did the vice-president started to share the ticket with the president, though by the indirect votes of the electoral college. Finally, after the 1988 Constitution, the presidential ticket began to be elected by direct vote.

As a rule, in a presidential ticket, the selection of the vice-presidential candidate occurs after the choosing of the presidential candidate. In presidential systems with high party fragmentation the indication of a running mate becomes a bargaining instrument for presidential candidates who want to attract allies (BIDEGAIN, 2017BIDEGAIN, Germán (2017), Vice-presidentes en América del Sur: una agenda de investigación. Colombia Internacional. Nº 89, pp. 159-188.; COUTO, SOARES and LIVRAMENTO, 2021COUTO, Lucas; SOARES, Andéliton, and LIVRAMENTO, Bernardo (2021), Presidencialismo de coalizão: conceito e aplicação. Revista Brasileira de Ciência Política. Nº 34, pp. 01-39.; SERRAFERO, 2018SERRAFERO, Mario Daniel (2018), La vicepresidencia y las coaliciones politicas: el caso de Argentina. Revista de Sociologia e Política. Vol. 26, Nº 65, pp. 15-38.). For this reason, in Brazil a high rate of mixed tickets can be found. In this case, the choice of candidate for vice-president arises out of an agreement with an allied party, which makes the indication, and the presidential candidate who has the final power of sanction or veto.

Therefore, as can be seen, in the Brazilian case, the decision-making process about presidential candidates is almost exclusively centralized among party leaders, since there is only one case of a primary election held by a political party. The later nomination of a running mate is still less inclusive, since it can come both from the presidential candidate and their party or an allied party.

Criteria and strategies for the selection of vice-presidential candidates

The vice-presidential position emerged as an instrument for the temporary replacement and permanent succession of the Head of the Executive of the United States in 1787 and was later adopted in Latin America. Currently, with the exception of Venezuela, all the presidential systems, which have the position, elect their vice-presidents on the presidential ticket5 5 In Venezuela, the vice-president is nominated by the president elect. . Studies show that the vice-presidential candidate can positively influence the presidential campaign by attracting voters to the ticket but can also hinder the search for electoral success (BROX and CASSELS, 2009BROX, Brian J. and CASSELS, Madison (2009), The contemporary effects of vice-presidential nominees: Sarah Palin and the 2008 Presidential Campaign. Journal of Political Marketing. Vol. 08, Nº 04, pp. 349-363.; KNUCKEY, 2012KNUCKEY, Jonathan (2012), The Palin Effect in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election. Political Research Quarterly. Vol. 65, Nº 02, pp. 275-289.). The selection of a running mate is thus not irrelevant, since it can affect the result of the election (COURT and LYNCH, 2015COURT, Whitney L. and LYNCH, Michael S. (2015), How presidential running mates influence turnout: the risks and rewards of revving up the base. American Politics Research. Vol. 43, Nº 05, pp. 897-918.; ULBIG, 2010ULBIG, Stacy G. (2010), The appeal of second bananas: the impact of vice presidential candidates in presidential vote choice, yesterday and today. American Politics Research. Vol. 38, Nº 03, pp. 330-355.; WATTENBERG, 1995WATTENBERG, Martin P. (1995), The role of vice presidential candidate ratings in presidential voting behavior. American Politics Quarterly. Vol. 23, Nº 04, pp. 504-514.).

Over time US literature has identified two selection strategies. The first consists of the choice of candidates who can balance the presidential ticket, while the second involves the nomination of candidates with political experience.

The choice of the vice-presidential candidate depends on the selection of the presidential candidate. Based on the definition of who the head of the ticket will be, it is possible to trace the selection strategy of the second member of the ticket. An ideal running mate is someone who has characteristics the presidential candidate lacks, in order to balance the ticket. The expectation is that these complementary attributions will be capable of expanding the votes obtained by the ticket (ADKISON, 1982ADKISON, Danny (1982), The electoral significance of the vice presidency. Presidential Studies Quarterly. Vol. 12, Nº 03, pp. 330-336.; BAUMGARTNER, 2006BAUMGARTNER, Jody C. (2006), The American vice presidency reconsidered. Westport: Praeger. 184 pp..). These differentials can be gender, race, ethnicity, age, ideology, religion, or regional origin. Since the aim of the presidential candidate and their party is to win the election, the selection of the vice-presidential candidate consists of the opportunity of the ticket to expand its potential electoral, increasing the chances of victory (BAUMGARTNER 2006BAUMGARTNER, Jody C. (2006), The American vice presidency reconsidered. Westport: Praeger. 184 pp..; HURWITZ, 1980HURWITZ, Jay (1980), Vice presidential eligibility and selection patterns. Polity. Vol. 12, Nº 03, pp. 509-521.; NELSON, 1988NELSON, Michael (1988), Choosing the vice president. PS: Political Science & Politics. Vol. 21, Nº 04, pp. 858-868.; POLSBY et al., 2016POLSBY, Nelson W.; WILDAVSKY, Aaron; SCHIER, Steven E.; HOPKINS, David A. (2016), Presidential elections: strategies and structures of American politics. New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. 320 pp..). Based on this, the literature has shown four ways to balance the ticket: by region, by gender/race/ethnicity, by generation, and ideological orientation.

First, the regional balance consists of the selection of a vice-presidential candidate who has constructed their political career in a region different from the presidential candidate. The aim is thus to increase the visibility of the ticket in other parts of the country (BAUMGARTNER, 2008BAUMGARTNER, Jody C. (2008), The Veepstakes: forecasting vice presidential selection in 2008. PS: Political Science & Politics. Vol. 41, Nº 04, pp. 765-772.; DUDLEY and RAPAPORT, 1989). Moreover, it is considered that a candidate coming an area with high populational representation is relevant for the attraction of a considerable number of votes to the ticket (LOPES, 2020LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113.; SIGELMAN and WAHLBECK, 1997SIGELMAN, Lee and WAHLBECK, Paul J. (1997), The ‘veepstakes’: strategic choice in presidential running mate selection. American Political Science Review. Vol. 91, Nº 04, pp. 855-864.).

In regard to Latin America, Mieres and Pampín (2015)MIERES, Pablo and PAMPÍN, Ernesto (2015), La trayectoria de los vicepresidentes en los regímenes presidencialistas de América. Revista de Estudios Políticos. Nº 167, pp. 99-132. found that regional balance is a frequent criterion in specific cases, such as Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador. In the Brazilian case, the authors show the frequency of the regional dynamic between the Southeast and the Northeast, which are the two most populated regions in the country. However, in more recent research, Lopes (2020)LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113. found a predominance of Southeast-South balance between the two best placed tickets, mainly in the 2018 election. In Argentina, it is common for the ticket to be formed by a representative from the capital, Buenos Aires, and another from a province. In Ecuador, the presidential ticket is regionally balanced by a candidate from Quito, the capital, and another from Guayaquil, the largest city in the country (MIERES and PAMPÍN, 2015MIERES, Pablo and PAMPÍN, Ernesto (2015), La trayectoria de los vicepresidentes en los regímenes presidencialistas de América. Revista de Estudios Políticos. Nº 167, pp. 99-132.).

Second, balance based on gender, race, or ethnicity consists of equilibrating the composition of the ticket, which can be done through the differentiation of one or more of these attributes (BAUMGARTNER, 2016BAUMGARTNER, Jody C. (2016), Rejecting more of the same? The 2016 Veepstakes. PS: Political Science & Politics. Vol. 49, Nº 04, pp. 775-781.; 2012; HILLER and KRINER, 2008HILLER, Mark and KRINER, Douglas (2008), Institutional change and the dynamics of vice-presidential selection. Presidential Studies Quarterly. Vol. 38, Nº 03, pp. 401-421.). Traditionally, presidential tickets are composed of white male candidates (BAUMGARTNER, 2006BAUMGARTNER, Jody C. (2006), The American vice presidency reconsidered. Westport: Praeger. 184 pp..). However, this does not correspond to the identarian representation of voters, meaning that the formation of diversified presidential tickets is a strategy to attract voters who do not see themselves represented by tickets constituted of just white male candidates. In this regard, the most unusual composition of presidential elections in the United States was in 2020, when the candidate for the Democratic Party, Joe Biden, chose Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate, a black woman.

Furthermore, age balance consists of the selection of a running mate from a different generation from the presidential candidate (HILLER and KRINER, 2008HILLER, Mark and KRINER, Douglas (2008), Institutional change and the dynamics of vice-presidential selection. Presidential Studies Quarterly. Vol. 38, Nº 03, pp. 401-421.; MIERES and PAMPÍN, 2015MIERES, Pablo and PAMPÍN, Ernesto (2015), La trayectoria de los vicepresidentes en los regímenes presidencialistas de América. Revista de Estudios Políticos. Nº 167, pp. 99-132.; SIGELMAN and WAHLBECK, 1997SIGELMAN, Lee and WAHLBECK, Paul J. (1997), The ‘veepstakes’: strategic choice in presidential running mate selection. American Political Science Review. Vol. 91, Nº 04, pp. 855-864.). This is the case of a presidential candidate of an advanced age, between 65 and 80, looking for a younger running mate, aged between 35 and 50, with the inverse situation being equally true. In Latin America, Mieres and Pampín (2015)MIERES, Pablo and PAMPÍN, Ernesto (2015), La trayectoria de los vicepresidentes en los regímenes presidencialistas de América. Revista de Estudios Políticos. Nº 167, pp. 99-132. found in countries such as Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and the Dominican Republic, that age balance is a frequent strategy in the formation of presidential tickets. A tendency verified by Lopes (2020)LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113., in the Brazilian case, in her analysis of the two most voted candidates.

Finally, ideological balance involves the selection of a running mate with a different ideological orientation from the presidential candidate. This strategy seeks to expand voters’ perceptions of the public platform of the presidential ticket, in order to appeal to a larger number of voters (KRUMEL and ENAMI, 2015). Studies have shown that the strategy with the best electoral result is the one which seeks to attract the moderate voter, to the detriment of strategies which aim to satisfy a more radical base (COURT and LYNCH, 2015COURT, Whitney L. and LYNCH, Michael S. (2015), How presidential running mates influence turnout: the risks and rewards of revving up the base. American Politics Research. Vol. 43, Nº 05, pp. 897-918.). This agrees with the rational choice approach in which candidates who target the median voter have greater chances of victory (CONGLETON, 2004CONGLETON, Roger, (2004), The median voter model. In: The Encyclopedia of Public Choice. Edited by ROWLEY, C. K. and SCHNEIDER, F. Boston: Springer. pp. 707-712.; DOWNS, 2013DOWNS, Anthony (2013), Uma teoria econômica da democracia. São Paulo: Editora da Universidade de São Paulo. 336 pp..).

This was the case of the 2009 presidential elections in Uruguay, when Danilo Astori, was chosen as vice-presidential candidate for the ‘Frente Ampla’ party. He was a moderate politician who balanced the ticket with the presidential candidate José Mujica, linked to the more radical wing of the party (MIERES, 2012MIERES, Pablo (2012), Las candidaturas vicepresidenciales en las campañas electorales. El caso de Uruguay 2009. Paper presented at 4º Congreso Uruguayo de Ciencia Politica. Montevideo, Uruguay.). By selecting a vice-presidential candidate with an appeal to moderate voters, ‘Frente Ampla’ intended to expand the electoral base of the presidential ticket and guarantee victory, which happened.

Based on the above, it is highlighted that one of the forms of choosing a running mate is to select someone who can balance the ticket, in order to meet the short-term objective, which is to win the election. Based on this, the following hypothesis was proposed:

H1: Selectors seek a vice-presidential candidate who can balance the presidential ticket, thereby seeking to expand the vote.

In the United States in the twentieth century, the frequency with which vice-presidents succeed presidents lit a warning light about the choice of the successor6 6 During the twentieth century five vice-presidents permanently assumed the presidency of the United States. , since they had to be prepared to take over the position (NELSON, 1988NELSON, Michael (1988), Choosing the vice president. PS: Political Science & Politics. Vol. 21, Nº 04, pp. 858-868.). In addition, they also had to guarantee the holding of subsequent elections within the period stipulated in law, in order to maintain the democratic system. For this reason, having experience in Executive branch became a relevant concern in the selection of candidates to the position (BAUMGARTNER, 2016BAUMGARTNER, Jody C. (2016), Rejecting more of the same? The 2016 Veepstakes. PS: Political Science & Politics. Vol. 49, Nº 04, pp. 775-781.; 2012; HILLER and KRINER, 2008HILLER, Mark and KRINER, Douglas (2008), Institutional change and the dynamics of vice-presidential selection. Presidential Studies Quarterly. Vol. 38, Nº 03, pp. 401-421.; NELSON, 1988NELSON, Michael (1988), Choosing the vice president. PS: Political Science & Politics. Vol. 21, Nº 04, pp. 858-868.), not only in the United States, but also in Latin America (LOPES, 2020LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113.; MIERES and PAMPÍN, 2015MIERES, Pablo and PAMPÍN, Ernesto (2015), La trayectoria de los vicepresidentes en los regímenes presidencialistas de América. Revista de Estudios Políticos. Nº 167, pp. 99-132.; PIGNATARO and TAYLOR-ROBINSON, 2019PIGNATARO, Adrián and TAYLOR-ROBINSON, Michelle M. (2019), Party competition, gender quotas, and enhanced inclusiveness in the selection of vice-presidential candidates. Politics, Groups, and Identities. pp. 01-18.).

However, the role of vice-president is not just about presidential succession. In the United States, the occupant of the position also presides the Senate, though without the right to speak or to vote, except as a tiebreaker. In Latin America, the constitutions of Argentina, Bolivia, and Uruguay adopted the same assignment7 7 The exception is in the upper chamber in Uruguay, where the vice-president can speak on and vote on any matter (BIDEGAIN, 2017). .

However, the other countries of the region establish more roles, such as taking part in the Council of Ministers (Bolivia and Paraguay), advising the president (Bolivia), representing the presidency on domestic and international missions (Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador), and coordination of the Executive and Legislative branches (Paraguay and Venezuela) (BIDEGAIN, 2017BIDEGAIN, Germán (2017), Vice-presidentes en América del Sur: una agenda de investigación. Colombia Internacional. Nº 89, pp. 159-188.). Therefore, this reinforces the need for running mates with political experience (PIGNATARO and TAYLOR-ROBINSON, 2019PIGNATARO, Adrián and TAYLOR-ROBINSON, Michelle M. (2019), Party competition, gender quotas, and enhanced inclusiveness in the selection of vice-presidential candidates. Politics, Groups, and Identities. pp. 01-18.).

Given the above, it can be noted that the selection strategy is not restricted to a short-term objective – winning the election. This can be achieved through other means, such as the charisma of the presidential candidate or investment in the election campaign. The factors listed in the paragraphs above show that choosing a vice-presidential candidate with political experience is a strategy which aims to meet long and mid-term necessities, namely assist governability and succeed the president, if necessary. Based on this, the following hypothesis was proposed:

H2: Selectors look for a vice-presidential candidate with political expertise, capable of increasing the governmental capacity of a possible president.

Vice-presidential candidate profile index

Based on the previous section, it is evidenced that the composition of the second spot in a presidential ticket can be motivated by two aspects: election and governance. The opportunity of having a second name to run for head of the Executive is a profitable circumstance for the presidential ticket to attract more votes. After all the aim of the party is to win the election. However, in this system, national leadership is centered on the presidential figure, meaning that succession during the mandate is an evident concern, so, the successor must be prepared to govern. Apart from this, the protocol and governmental assignments have resulted in the selection of candidates prepared to assume what is demanded (NELSON, 1988NELSON, Michael (1988), Choosing the vice president. PS: Political Science & Politics. Vol. 21, Nº 04, pp. 858-868.).

Based on this and on the discussion in the literature, it is possible to establish two profiles for vice-presidential candidates: the vote puller and the political expert. A vote puller partner is a candidate who was chosen with the partner of fulfilling a short-term objective – winning the elections. The literature shows that one of the forms of achieving this objective is to choose a candidate who has complementary attributes to the president. In this sense, the strategies include male presidential candidates choosing female running mates; presidential candidates from the south of the country selecting partners from the north; radical presidential candidates opting for partners more in the center of the political spectrum; and older candidates choosing younger partners.

The political expert partner is a candidate with a strong political trajectory. Besides a possible succession, the vice-president also performs activities within the government, such as being an adviser to the president, minister, representative of the state, and the government abroad, coordinating relations between Executive and Legislative branches, or even being part of the latter. By possessing experience in these two spheres, the political expert is the candidate not only apt to assume the constitutional functions but also to carry out other activities or missions assigned during the mandate. This shows that the concerns of the selectors go beyond the electoral arena. Moreover, their background can give some indication of their negotiation skills, such as congressional or partisan leadership.

In the concrete case in question, some vice-presidential candidates might have characteristics which can contribute to balance the ticket and assist while in the government. Bearing this in mind, it is necessary to establish a hybrid profile, which covers those candidates who do not have characteristics which stand out in either of the two categories.

To place candidates within this classification the Vice-Presidential Candidate Profile Index (VPCPI) was developed. The index consists of a nine-point scale, ranging from -04 to 04. Its value is given by the sum of the presence of each of the attributes added to the ticket and the political trajectory of the candidate. Personal attributes receive a positive value, while elements of the political experience received negative values. Positive values between 02 and 04 indicate a partner profile of vote puller. Values from the other extremity, between -02 and -04, point to the nomination of a political expert partner. Intermediate values between -01 and 01 indicate a hybrid pattern of nomination, in other words, the candidate has the same number of attributes referring to the two different profiles.

1. Gender balance: is the VP candidate of a different gender to the presidential candidate? If yes, a value of 01 is given.

2. Regional balance: is the VP candidate from a different geographic region than the presidential candidate? If yes, a value of 01 is given.

3. Ideological balance: is the VP candidate from a party with a different ideological position from the presidential candidate? If yes, a value of 01 is given.

4. Age balance: is the VP candidate from a different generation from the presidential candidate? If yes, a value of 01 is given.

5. Executive experience: has the VP candidate previously held an elected or appointed position in the Executive (mayor, state governor, subnational secretary, or ministry)? If yes, a value of -01 is given.

6. Legislative experience: Has the VP candidate previously occupied an elected position in the Legislative? If yes, a value of -01 is given.

7. Parliamentary leadership: Has the candidate been a party leader in either the lower or upper chamber of parliament? If yes, a value of -01 is given.

8. Party administration: Did the candidate previously hold a position in the party administration? If yes, a value of -01 is given.

Data and methods

Next, in order to answer the question proposed in this study, the personal attributes and the political trajectory of vice-presidential in Brazilian elections between 1989 and 2019 will be analyzed. The 1985 election was not included, due to the scope of this paper, which requires that only elections with popular vote be analyzed, while the election in question was decided by an indirect vote.

Between 1989 and 2018, in eight elections there were 87 vice-presidential candidates. Of this total, three were running for re-election during their previous mandate8 8 These are the candidates Marcos Maciel (PFL) in the 1998 election, José Alencar (PRB) in 2006, and Michel Temer (PMDB) in 2014. . These candidacies were excluded, since their permanence would have generated duplicate information, as they had already been selected by the presidential candidate in the previous election. Among the 84 remaining candidates, this study analyzed all the candidates for whom personal information was found, such as home state and age, in the database of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Based on this, 63 vice-presidential candidacies were analyzed.

Information about personal attributes and political trajectories were collected in official sites of institutional bodies9 9 Chamber of Deputies, available at ˂http://www2.camara.leg.br/deputados/pesquisa. Federal Senate, available at: https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/home˃. Superior Electoral Court, available at ˂http://www.tse.jus.br/˃. and the Getúlio Vargas Foundation10 10 From the Brazilian Historical and Biographic Dictionary, available at ˂http://www.fgv.br/cpdoc/acervo/arquivo˃. . To verify the adoption of ideological balance, the ideological orientation of the political party of the candidates was used as the observational unit, according to the year of the election. Based on data collected by Brazilian Legislative Surveys (BLS)11 11 The ideological position of PSL and PRTB was not measured by BLS (ZUCCO and POWER, 2019). However, due to the public positions of both parties, they were classified as ‘rightwing’. In the cases where it was not possible to identify the ideological orientation of the base in question, the study used the index of Coppedge (1997) and Wiesehomeier, Singer and Ruth-Lovell (2019). Greater information can be found in the database. , a classification of the ideology of political parties was created in which were defined equal values based on nine interval points distributed on a ten-point scale divided into categories of left, center-left, center, center-right, and right.

To verify the age balance of the presidential ticket, the candidates were classified in three distinct generations. Based on Ortega Y Gasset (1956)ORTEGA y GASSET, Jose (1956), En torno a Galileo: esquema de las crisis. Madri: Revista del Occiedente. 242 pp.., the different phases of life are separated by periods of 15 years. The Brazilian Constitution determines a minimum age of 36 to run for president and vice-president. Therefore, taking this determination, the first generation corresponds to the group of candidates aged between 35 and 50 years of age at the time of nomination, while the second generation was attributed to candidates of 51 to 65 years of age, and the third generation represents those who ran for election at a more advanced age, between 66 and 80.

Results

Initially, this section presents and discusses the findings about the strategies adopted in the selection of vice-presidential candidates. Following this, the profiles of these candidates are discussed in accordance with the Vice-Presidential Candidate Profile Index (VPCPI).

Figure 01 shows the different forms of ticket balancing used in the VP candidate selection. Among the four categories, regional balance (60.3%) and age balance (50.8%) were the most frequent strategies, a result which agrees with the findings of the literature (BAUMGARTNER, 2008BAUMGARTNER, Jody C. (2008), The Veepstakes: forecasting vice presidential selection in 2008. PS: Political Science & Politics. Vol. 41, Nº 04, pp. 765-772.; HILLER and KRINER, 2008HILLER, Mark and KRINER, Douglas (2008), Institutional change and the dynamics of vice-presidential selection. Presidential Studies Quarterly. Vol. 38, Nº 03, pp. 401-421.; LOPES, 2020LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113.; MIERES and PAMPÍN, 2015MIERES, Pablo and PAMPÍN, Ernesto (2015), La trayectoria de los vicepresidentes en los regímenes presidencialistas de América. Revista de Estudios Políticos. Nº 167, pp. 99-132.; SIGELMAN and WAHLBECK, 1997SIGELMAN, Lee and WAHLBECK, Paul J. (1997), The ‘veepstakes’: strategic choice in presidential running mate selection. American Political Science Review. Vol. 91, Nº 04, pp. 855-864.).

Figure 01 Ticket balance in the selection of vice-presidential candidates

Regarding regional balance, although the studies deal with the US case, Brazil is similar in terms of its size. Based on this, selecting a candidate from a different region than the presidential candidate appears to be a desirable strategy to attract the electorate (LOPES, 2020LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113.).

In the Brazilian case, among the tickets which adopted a regional balance, more than half were equilibrated by a Southeast/Northeast composition. For example, in the 1994 election, the presidential candidate Fernando Henrique Cardoso was a politician from São Paulo (Southeast), while his running mate, Marco Maciel, was a well-known politician from Pernambuco (Northeast). Or when the then presidential candidate in the 1989 election, Fernando Collor from Alagoas (Northeast), invited Itamar Franco from Minas Gerais (Southeast) to be his vice-president.

Although Lopes (2020)LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113. found a different tendency among the most voted tickets (Southeast-South), here, after all the candidacies were analyzed, the findings indicate the predominance of a Southeast-Northeast composition, as Mieres and Pampín have already noted (2015). As a matter of fact, this is an expected tendency, because these two regions have the highest number of voters, in other words, they are the most fought over electoral niches in the country.

The preponderance of age balance points to the elevated frequency of the selection of a running mate from a different generation. Younger candidates, such as Fernando Collor (PRN), 40, sought more experienced running mates, such as Itamar Franco (PRN), 59, with the purpose of bringing experience and credibility to the ticket. Older candidates, such as José Serra (PSDB), 68, in the 2010 election, selected a younger candidate, Índio Costa (DEM), 40, in an attempt to demonstrate that his campaign was aware of the demands of younger generations.

In third place was gender balance, which was found in around one third (31.7%) of candidacies. The aim of a male presidential candidate in selecting a woman as running mate is to attract a female electoral base, which corresponds to nothing less than half of the Brazilian population. Using the same criteria, in cases where there were female candidates running for the presidency, a male running mate was selected. Thus, while it is common for presidential tickets to consist of two male candidates, the opposite is not true, since there is only one record of a ticket formed entirely by women: in 2006, the PRP ticket was formed by the presidential candidate Ana Maria Rangel and the vice-presidential candidate Delma Gama e Narcini.

Finally, ideological balance was a strategy adopted in the selection of 14.3% of vice-presidential candidates. This low result indicates that the adjustments correspond to the adaptation to the Brazilian case. While in the US case, the biparty system makes the formation of tickets with candidates from different parties impossible, in the Brazilian case, the multi-party system with a high fragmentation stimulates the selection of vice-presidential candidates from another party. This is a recurrent practice due to the need to attract allies to the electoral arena (KELLAM, 2017KELLAM, Marisa (2017), Why pre-electoral coalitions in presidential systems? British Journal of Political Science. Vol. 47, Nº 02, pp. 391-411.; SERRAFERO, 2018SERRAFERO, Mario Daniel (2018), La vicepresidencia y las coaliciones politicas: el caso de Argentina. Revista de Sociologia e Política. Vol. 26, Nº 65, pp. 15-38.; UGGLA, 2020UGGLA, Fredrik (2020), The politics of vice-presidential selection in Latin America. Electoral Studies. Vol. 65, pp. 01-09.). For this reason, in the Brazilian case, the unit of analysis of ideological orientation were parties and not candidates (LOPES, 2020LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113.), which can impact the conclusions drawn from the findings in relation to what the literature prescribes (COURT and LYNCH, 2015COURT, Whitney L. and LYNCH, Michael S. (2015), How presidential running mates influence turnout: the risks and rewards of revving up the base. American Politics Research. Vol. 43, Nº 05, pp. 897-918.; KRUMEL and ENAMI, 2015).

Despite the low frequency, the research shows that parties who most often occupied the first and second places in the presidential dispute, the PSDB and the PT, were present in eight of the nine cases which adopted an ideological balance. In four PSDB presidential tickets, three had a running mate from the PFL (DEM), while the fourth was a female candidate from the PP. Traditionally, the PSDB presidential candidate, with a moderate position, sought through a composition with PFL to expand its political platform to an electoral base with a more defined political spectrum - from the right wing. In the 2018 election, when selecting a running mate from the PP, the PSDB candidate, Geraldo Alckmin, was repeating the same strategy used previously: selecting a vice president capable of expanding the base to a more radical section of voters.

Until the 2002 election, the PT selected vice-presidential candidates from parties who could ideologically balance the ticket, but which were part of the ideological spectrum of the left and center-left. In other words, in the 1990s, the party, which had a more radical platform, selected candidates from parties with a more moderate political platform, due to the desire to expand the electoral base, as shown in the research (COURT and LYNCH, 2015COURT, Whitney L. and LYNCH, Michael S. (2015), How presidential running mates influence turnout: the risks and rewards of revving up the base. American Politics Research. Vol. 43, Nº 05, pp. 897-918.).

However, in the 2002 election, the party’s strategy changed. The party presented a more moderate, center-left platform, and selected a vice-presidential candidate who brought a right-wing platform: José Alencar from the Liberal Party (PL). The ideological balance of the ticket was one of the strategies adopted by Lula (PT), aiming to send a message to the economic sector highlighting a broad opening of the political platform for his future government (CANTANHÊDE, 2010CANTANHÊDE, Eliane (2010), José Alencar - Amor à vida: a saga de um brasileiro. Rio de Janeiro: Sextante. 364 pp..). In the election of Lula’s successor, the PT decided to maintain this strategy. As a result, the running mate was chosen from the PMDB, a center party. In 2018, the PT ticket returned to the previous strategy of forming an ideological unbalanced candidacy. Therefore, despite the low adoption of ideological balance, this strategy was constantly present in the selection of vice-presidential candidates in the historically most competitive parties in presidential elections.

Figure 02 shows the political trajectories of the vice-presidential candidates. It can be noted that there is a similar distribution among the trajectories. Among the 26 candidates with legislative experience, all had been members of the Brazilian congress at some stage.

Figure 02 Political trajectory of vice-presidential candidates

Among the candidates who were members of the Federal Senate, eight of the twelve were in the middle of their mandates when they were nominated. A senator in the middle of their mandate has a greater incentive to run for the Executive in comparison with a deputy, since defeat does not imply the loss of an ongoing mandate (LOPES, 2020LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113.). In Brazil, elections for the presidency and the Chamber of Deputies are concurrent and so share the same mandate period – four years. Therefore, to run on the presidential ticket, a deputy, for example, has to choose between running for re-election or disputing the election in the Executive. On the other hand, a senator has an eight year mandate, which allows them the possibility of running for an election in the middle of the mandate, without this resulting in the loss of the position if they are not elected.

To the contrary of other countries, such as Argentina and Uruguay, the Constitution does not give a legislative function to the Brazilian vice-president, only an executive one (BIDEGAIN, 2017BIDEGAIN, Germán (2017), Vice-presidentes en América del Sur: una agenda de investigación. Colombia Internacional. Nº 89, pp. 159-188.). Given the nature of the activities involved in the position, it is thus expected that the prospective vice-president has experience in the Executive branch. Despite this, Figure 02 shows that the number of candidates with experience in the Executive (33.3%) is lower compared to legislative experience (42.9%).

The results demonstrate that, despite the executive nature of vice-presidential assignments, recruitment is greater in the Legislative branch. In this regard, there are examples of vice-presidents working with legislative political liaison aimed at the interests of the presidency: in the 1990s Marco Maciel worked with the PFL’s base in the National Congress, while Michel Temer was made responsible for presidential political liaison during Dilma Rousseff’s second mandate (MATOSO, 2015MATOSO, Filipe (2015), Presidência anuncia saída de Vargas; Temer fica na articulação política. G1. Brasília. 07 April 2015. Available at ˂http://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2015/04/presidencia-anuncia-saida-de-vargas-temer-fica-na-articulacao-politica.html˃. Accessed on May , 12, 2020.http://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/201... ; TOLEDO and LEON, 1995TOLEDO, José Roberto de and LEON, Flavia de (1995), Maciel vira coordenador político de FHC. Folha de São Paulo. Primeiro Caderno: Brasil. São Paulo, 07 January 1995, p. 01.). As a result, the legislative experience of the vice-president can be used to defend the interests of the government (LOPES, 2020LOPES, Amanda Vitoria (2020), Escolhendo um companheiro de chapa: seleção de candidatos à vice-presidência. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política. Vol. 29, Nº 02, pp. 85-113.).

Regarding the candidates with experience in the Executive, 17 of the 21 candidates occupied subnational positions, as executive secretary, governor, or mayor, while eight had worked at the national level holding the office of minister. In other words, despite vice-presidential functions at a national level, few had this type of experience.

Figure 02 also demonstrates that 31.7% of candidates held positions in party administration and 34.9% had been leaders of party groups in the Chamber of Deputies or the Federal Senate. Here it is important to highlight that those selected had played recognized roles among their peers, as well as having indicated their political liaison ability, since they had held leadership positions. This shows that party insiders may have greater chances than simple party activists to run for the highest offices, like the vice-presidency.

Figure 03 shows the profile of the candidates selected to run for vice-president according to the VPCPI. Of the total, 25.4% of the selected candidates had a vote puller profile, while 19% were political experts, demonstrating a small predominance of the former in relation to the latter. While candidates with a hybrid profile configured almost half of the total (47.6%), five candidates (7.9%) did not get scores in any of the index indicators.

Figure 03 Profile of vice-presidential candidates by ticket competitiveness

Figure 03 also demonstrates the distribution of the selected profiles according to the competitiveness of the presidential ticket. Leading tickets are those who reach first or second place in the first or unique election round. Non-leading tickets are the leftovers. The objective is to analyze if there is a difference in the candidate selection pattern between the two groups. According to Figure 03, among the leading tickets, political experts were selected with greater frequency (7.9%) than vote pullers (1.6%). This is the opposite of the total number of vice-presidential candidates, among which there is a slight majority with a vote puller profile (25.4%) compared to political experts (19%), as highlighted above.

Moreover, although the hybrid profile is more frequent among the leading tickets, the difference in relation to those selected with a political expert profile is lower: while among the total candidates, the difference between running mates with an expert and hybrid profile was 28.6%, among the leading tickets, this distance was 3.2%. The preference of leading tickets for running mates with political expert profiles is the result of the concern with a potential government. Winning the election is a fundamental step in the political process, but governing is the next step for a winning candidate. In other words, presidential candidates from leading tickets might motivate their decision in selecting a running mate outside the electoral arena, because they do not balance the ticket, while candidates from non-leading tickets select running mates who meet the immediate need - winning the election.

Therefore, the Figure 03 suggests that distinct behavior can be observed in the general population in comparison with the leading tickets. In order to see if the difference between the groups is statistically significant, a Student’s T-Test was applied to the general population (all candidates, n=63) compared to candidates in leading tickets (first and second place in election, n=13), using as a continuous variable the value achieved by each vice-presidential candidate in VPCPI. In the test, the null hypothesis is that there are no significant differences of means between the two groups (all candidates and candidates from the leading tickets), while the alternative hypothesis indicates that the difference between the two groups is different from zero. With a confidence level of 95% (t=– 1.9583, df=74, p.value= 0.05397), the Student’s T-Test did not demonstrate sufficient statistical significance o reject the null hypothesis. This means that there is not sufficient statistical significance to affirm that the two groups behave in distinct manners.

Despite these results regarding the two groups, in general, the findings show that the selection calculation is not just for a candidate who can help guarantee electoral victory, but also for someone experienced in the political field. Therefore, the hybrid running mate was the most frequent, partially confirming the two hypotheses proposed.

In summary, the findings show a preference for running mates from a different geographic region from the presidential candidate, mainly from the Southeast or Northeast, as well as being younger or older than the presidential candidate and with experience in the Legislative branch, especially in the National Congress. Regarding the selection strategies, the findings indicate the absence of the dominance of one of them. Actually, the results indicate the predominance of both – ticket balance and political experience. In the selection of running mates in previous Brazilian elections there has been a greater preference for those capable of attracting votes to the ticket at the same time that they can offer a capacity for governance to a potential president.

Final considerations

To the contrary of the expectations, the study of the Brazilian case shows that among vice-presidential candidates there is no predominance in the selection of a profile which can help to attract votes to the ticket, nor a profile with experience in the governmental arena. The investigation demonstrated that the presidential candidates preferred a third alternative, i.e., candidates who meet both demands – the best of both worlds.

Despite this result, it is needed to highlight that, between the ticket balance and political experience strategies, the former is slightly imposed over the latter in regard to all candidacies. Among the total presidential candidacies it can be noted that the desire to balance the ticket is greater than looking for governance capacity, this is due to the need to expand the electoral base.

However, at first sight, this appeared to be different when the tickets were broken down into competitive and non-competitive. The hypothesis testing did not demonstrate sufficient statistical significance to affirm that the difference between the two groups exists. However, this finding demonstrates the need to assess, for example, the conditions which influence the selection of one or another candidate.

The aim of this study is the proposal of a systematic analysis of vice-presidential selection in the Brazilian case. Thus, the challenge was to apply the literature to the Brazilian case, taking into account the institutional arrangement which is very diverse from what was studied in previous studies. In Brazil, the selection of running mates can be a relevant instrument of exchange and negotiation in pre-electoral coalition agreements (SERRAFERO, 2018SERRAFERO, Mario Daniel (2018), La vicepresidencia y las coaliciones politicas: el caso de Argentina. Revista de Sociologia e Política. Vol. 26, Nº 65, pp. 15-38.). Based on this, in Brazilian elections mixed presidential tickets are common, ones in which the candidates come from distinct political parties (UGGLA, 2020UGGLA, Fredrik (2020), The politics of vice-presidential selection in Latin America. Electoral Studies. Vol. 65, pp. 01-09.). They have few opportunities to assess their compatibility and their different backgrounds and support which can result in their looking for distinct interests. Therefore, for this research agenda to progress it is necessary to study the role of the second spot indication in the establishment of political and electoral agreements (BIDEGAIN, 2017BIDEGAIN, Germán (2017), Vice-presidentes en América del Sur: una agenda de investigación. Colombia Internacional. Nº 89, pp. 159-188.; COUTO, SOARES and LIVRAMENTO, 2021COUTO, Lucas; SOARES, Andéliton, and LIVRAMENTO, Bernardo (2021), Presidencialismo de coalizão: conceito e aplicação. Revista Brasileira de Ciência Política. Nº 34, pp. 01-39.).

Apart from this, the role of the vice-president in the Brazilian political scenario is notable. In addition to the fact that half of the vice-presidents have permanently occupied the presidency during the post-redemocratization period, they can be an important political liaison of the interests of the Executive in the National Congress (MATOSO, 2015MATOSO, Filipe (2015), Presidência anuncia saída de Vargas; Temer fica na articulação política. G1. Brasília. 07 April 2015. Available at ˂http://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2015/04/presidencia-anuncia-saida-de-vargas-temer-fica-na-articulacao-politica.html˃. Accessed on May , 12, 2020.http://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/201... ; TOLEDO and LEON, 1995TOLEDO, José Roberto de and LEON, Flavia de (1995), Maciel vira coordenador político de FHC. Folha de São Paulo. Primeiro Caderno: Brasil. São Paulo, 07 January 1995, p. 01.), but also can contribute to the worsening of presidential crises (MARSTEINTREDET and UGGLA, 2019MARSTEINTREDET, Leiv and UGGLA, Fredrik (2019), Allies and traitors: vice-presidents in Latin America. Journal of Latin American Studies. Vol. 51, Nº 03, pp. 665-688.). The academic area thus has a broad and necessary research agenda.