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Commentaries by Xiao Bin

Xiao Bin

Deputy Secretary-general, Center for Shanghai Cooperation Organization Studies, Chinese Association of Social Sciences

Xiao Bin is Deputy Secretary-general of the Center for Shanghai Cooperation Organization Studies at the Chinese Association of Social Sciences (CASS), research fellow of the CASS Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies, and an expert affiliated with the Council on China-Russia Strategic Coordination.

Between War and Rupture
Mar 06, 2026
Whether assessing the prospects of the war in Ukraine or predicting the trajectory of relations between the United States and Russia, U.S. policy discussions have generally revealed a cautious, realistic tone: The war is unlikely to end quickly, and the rupture in the international order is widening.
Ukraine CrisisU.S.-Russia RelationsU.S.-Central Asia-China RelationsGeopoliticsMajor Power RelationsNATO
2025 in Review: The Ukraine War and the Global Order
Jan 16, 2026
In 2025, Ukraine gradually changed from a battlefield confrontation to a complex contest centered on cease-fire terms, postwar arrangements and the responsibilities of the world’s major powers. The war in Ukraine did not end in 2025, but a new reality was clearly defined.
World OrderMultipolarizationMultilateralismGlobal GovernanceWTO
War Cost Calculations in Ukraine Conflict
Dec 09, 2025
Negotiations on Ukraine’s peace plan reveal more than technical differences. They show a calculation by all parties related to the cost of war, the capacity to endure over time and the sequencing of strategic priorities.
Ukraine CrisisRegional SecurityGeopolitics
Trump’s Central Asia Strategy
Dec 08, 2025
The Trump administration’s transactional diplomacy in Central Asia comes with both reconfiguration and constraints. It has broadened the scope of U.S. engagement, yet its depth and structural impact on regional geopolitics are limited.
U.S.-Central Asia-China RelationsU.S. Foreign Policy
Why the Budapest Summit Was Canceled
Oct 28, 2025
The meeting was agreed upon to promote a cease-fire in the Ukraine conflict. But it was called off, underscoring the fragility of peace initiatives and suggesting that the war is likely to continue for a long time.
U.S.-Russia RelationsUkraine CrisisPutinNATO
Sentinel East Heightens U.S.-Russia Rivalry
Sep 25, 2025
NATO’s Sentinel East system puts technological and strategic prowess on display and is a landmark event in the U.S.-Russia military rivalry in Europe. It represents a new inflection point in security that adds to the complexity of the Ukraine crisis.
NATOU.S.-Russia RelationsUkraine Crisis
SCO Summit Adds Certainty to Uncertain World
Sep 02, 2025
Turbulence has overwhelmed the current international system and SCO member states are feeling a profound impact. The Tianjin Summit is designed to further deepen multilateral cooperation and to provide a new center for global strategic stability.
SCOSCOGlobal Economy
From Olive Branch to Strategic Deterrence
Jul 25, 2025
Second round of Trump-Putin engagement incorporates elements of strategic deterrence but has failed to resolve the conflict. That’s because the war reflects a deeper struggle over institutions, grand strategy and competing value systems.
U.S.-Russia RelationsPutinDonald TrumpNATOAsia-Europe Relations
A Flawed Premise on Ukraine War
Jun 18, 2025
Many in the West think Sino-Russian ties are the key to a resolution of the conflict. But this is a significant strategic misjudgment. Any durable peace in Ukraine must be found through negotiations between the parties directly involved.
Ukraine CrisisChina-Russia RelationsU.S.-Russia RelationsCold WarNATOGeopoliticsRegional Security
U.S., Russia Maneuver in Ukraine Talks
Jun 03, 2025
Three major diplomatic challenges have driven a wedge between the United States and Russia in their peace negotiations. Their divergence highlights more than a clash between worldviews. It shows their competition for leadership in the reconstruction of the international order.
Ukraine CrisisU.S.-Russia RelationsRegional Security