Pivot Counties In Michigan - Ballotpedia

2020 Election Analysis:Pivot Counties
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2020 Election Analysis Hub

Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.

Following the 2016 presidential election, Michigan had 12 Pivot Counties.

Ballotpedia defines Pivot Counties Trump won in 2020 as Retained Pivot Counties and those Joe Biden (D) won as Boomerang Pivot Counties.

After the 2020 presidential election, the state had 11 Retained Pivot Counties and one Boomerang Pivot County.

Contents

• 1 List of Pivot Counties
• 2 2020 analysis
  • 2.1 Voter turnout
  • 2.2 Demographics
• 3 2016 analysis
  • 3.1 Voting trends
  • 3.2 2016 election results
    • 3.2.1 General election
    • 3.2.2 Primaries
• 4 See also
• 5 Footnotes

List of Pivot Counties

See also: Election results, 2020: Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election, Presidential election in Michigan, 2020

The table below lists the Pivot Counties in Michigan. These counties accounted for 14.46 percent of the total counties in Michigan, and 18.36 percent of the state population.

Analysis of Michigan counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 following the 2020 presidential election[1]
County	State	Winner, 2020	Margin of Victory, 2020	Trump Margin of Victory, 2016	Obama Margin of Victory, 2012	Obama Margin of Victory, 2008
Bay County	Michigan	Retained	+11.57	+12.55	+5.56	+15.31
Calhoun County	Michigan	Retained	+11.08	+12.46	+1.6	+9.36
Eaton County	Michigan	Retained	+0.78	+4.72	+3.13	+8.4
Gogebic County	Michigan	Retained	+12.45	+14.8	+8.1	+17.27
Isabella County	Michigan	Retained	+2.52	+3.66	+9.28	+19.26
Lake County	Michigan	Retained	+26.18	+22.77	+5.01	+12.28
Macomb County	Michigan	Retained	+8.07	+11.53	+3.99	+8.62
Manistee County	Michigan	Retained	+15.11	+15.29	+5.93	+13.26
Monroe County	Michigan	Retained	+22.61	+21.97	+0.98	+4.35
Saginaw County	Michigan	Boomerang	+0.29	+1.13	+11.89	+17.34
Shiawassee County	Michigan	Retained	+19.85	+19.59	+3.67	+8.59
Van Buren County	Michigan	Retained	+12.23	+13.92	+0.45	+8.78

The map below shows Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties in Michigan shaded bright red and blue, respectively.

2020 analysis

Voter turnout

See also: Election results, 2020: Voter turnout in Pivot Counties

Michigan has 12 Pivot Counties, 14.5% of the state's 83 total counties. Of those 12 Pivot Counties, the state has 11 Retained Pivot Counties and one Boomerang Pivot County, responsible for 16.40% and 1.87% of the statewide turnout, respectively.

Voter turnout in Michigan and its Pivot Counties
Votes cast	Voting age population	Turnout	Contribution to statewide turnout
Overview
Michigan	5,547,053	7,472,660	74.23%	-
Retained Pivot Counties	909,587	1,242,950	73.18%	16.40%
Boomerang Pivot County	103,483	148,825	69.53%	1.87%

County-specific
Votes cast	Voting age population	Turnout	Contribution to statewide turnout
Bay	60,255	82,555	72.99%	1.09%
Calhoun	66,281	100,650	65.85%	1.19%
Eaton	64,327	84,010	76.57%	1.16%
Gogebic	8,276	12,945	63.93%	0.15%
Isabella	29,476	57,030	51.69%	0.53%
Lake	6,332	9,735	65.04%	0.11%
Macomb	494,256	651,790	75.83%	8.91%
Manistee	14,655	19,955	73.44%	0.26%
Monroe	87,282	115,675	75.45%	1.57%
Saginaw	103,483	148,825	69.53%	1.87%
Shiawassee	39,301	53,385	73.62%	0.71%
Van Buren	39,146	55,220	70.89%	0.71%

Demographics

See also: Election results, 2020: Demographics of the 206 Pivot Counties

This table displays demographic data, on average, by county compared to nationwide and statewide averages with a focus on Pivot Counties. Use the arrows at the top of the table to view 2016 data and changes from 2016 to 2020. Full demographic data can be found here.

2016 analysis

HIGHLIGHTS

There were 12 counties in Michigan that voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

18.36 percent of the population of Michigan resided in these 12 counties.

Since 1960, Pivot Counties in Michigan have matched the national election result in 74.44% of presidential elections.

Voting trends

The table below details the voting trends of the Pivot Counties in Michigan since 1960.

Presidential Elections in Michigan Pivot Counties since 1960
County	Elections won by Republican Presidential candidate		Elections won by Democratic Presidential candidate		Elections matching national result
	Elections	Percentage of elections	Elections	Percentage of elections	Elections	Percentage of elections
Bay County, Michigan	4	26.67%	11	73.33%	11	73.33%
Calhoun County, Michigan	9	60.00%	6	40.00%	12	80.00%
Eaton County, Michigan	12	80.00%	3	20.00%	11	73.33%
Gogebic County, Michigan	2	13.33%	13	86.67%	9	60.00%
Isabella County, Michigan	8	53.33%	7	46.67%	11	73.33%
Lake County, Michigan	3	20.00%	12	80.00%	8	53.33%
Macomb County, Michigan	8	53.33%	7	46.67%	11	73.33%
Manistee County, Michigan	9	60.00%	6	40.00%	12	80.00%
Monroe County, Michigan	6	40.00%	9	60.00%	13	86.67%
Saginaw County, Michigan	7	46.67%	8	53.33%	10	66.67%
Shiawassee County, Michigan	10	66.67%	5	33.33%	13	86.67%
Van Buren County, Michigan	10	66.67%	5	33.33%	13	86.67%
Average	7	48.89%	8	51.11%	11	74.44%
Median	8	53.33%	7	46.67%	11	73.33%

2016 election results

See also: Presidential election in Michigan, 2016

In 2016, Michigan had 16 electoral votes, which was 3 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 6 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Presidential primary elections in Michigan took place on March 8, 2016. Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 49.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 36.5 percent.

General election

U.S. presidential election, Michigan, 2016
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine	47.3%	2,268,839	0
	Republican	Donald Trump/Mike Pence	47.5%	2,279,543	16
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Bill Weld	3.6%	172,136	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka	1.1%	51,463	0
	U.S. Taxpayers	Darrell Lane Castle/Scott Bradley	0.3%	16,139	0
	Natural Law	Emidio Soltysik/Angela Nicole Walker	0%	2,209	0
	Other	Write-in votes	0.2%	8,955	0
Total Votes				4,799,284	16
Election results via: Michigan Department of State

Primaries

Michigan Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Delegates
Bernie Sanders	49.7%	598,943	67
Hillary Clinton	48.3%	581,775	63
Martin O'Malley	0.2%	2,363	0
Roque De La Fuente	0.1%	870	0
Other	1.8%	21,601	0
Totals		1,205,552	130
Source: Michigan Secretary of State and The New York Times

Michigan Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Delegates
Jeb Bush	0.8%	10,685	0
Ben Carson	1.6%	21,349	0
Chris Christie	0.2%	3,116	0
Ted Cruz	24.7%	326,617	17
Carly Fiorina	0.1%	1,415	0
Lindsey Graham	0%	438	0
Mike Huckabee	0.2%	2,603	0
John Kasich	24.3%	321,115	17
George Pataki	0%	591	0
Rand Paul	0.3%	3,774	0
Marco Rubio	9.3%	123,587	0
Rick Santorum	0.1%	1,722	0
Donald Trump	36.5%	483,753	25
Other	1.7%	22,824	0
Totals		1,323,589	59
Source: CNN and Michigan Secretary of State

See also

• List of Pivot Counties - the 206 counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump
• Pivot Counties by state
• Presidential election, 2016

Footnotes

1. ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.

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