The Yeonpyeong Attack: Shooting Down Denuclearisation? - RSIS

The North Korean artillery attack on South Korean-controlled Yeonpyeong Island on 23 November 2010 constitutes the worst provocation amidst tension on the Korean Peninsula since the Cheonan incident. Could this episode effectively end all hope for denuclearising the peninsula?

Commentary

ON 23 NOVEMBER 2010, the North Korean People’s Army (KPA) launched a massive artillery barrage on the Yeonpyeong Island which is controlled by South Korea. The attack was reportedly in response to the failure of the South Korean military to heed Pyongyang’s warning to stand down from wargames on the island, which Pyongyang saw as a provocation. This attack left two South Korean military servicemen dead, scores wounded, and a rapid emergency evacuation of civilians from the island, which is perilously close to the contested sea border in the Yellow Sea.

To date, other than retaliatory artillery fire by the South Korean military forces and deployment of air force combat units to the scene, there have been no further signs of escalation. But in a surprising turn of events, the South Korean defence minister has resigned following domestic criticism of Seoul’s handling of the incident. This latest provocation has been the worst since the alleged North Korean sinking of the South Korean Navy corvette ROKS Cheonan in March this year. Could this string of events threaten to end efforts to denuclearise the Korean Peninsula?

Not the first time, probably not the last

Ever since the two Koreas signed the armistice which ceased active hostilities of the Korean War in 1953, a series of armed provocations had taken place from time to time between the opposing Korean forces. Until the meltdown of its economy, precipitated by the dissolution of its primary sponsor at that time – the Soviet Union – Pyongyang had harboured dreams of eventual unification, by force again if necessary, of the entire Korean Peninsula under its rule. Infiltrations of armed agents, assassination attempts, for instance were employed as means to undermine Seoul.

In the 1990s, provocations from North Korea resumed, albeit at a lower tempo compared to during the Cold War. Most notable of all had been the 1996 Gangneung submarine infiltration attempt, which ended bloodily for both sides before all North Korean infiltrators were hunted down. With a plummeting economy, such provocations have been largely subsumed by maritime incidents particularly in the disputed sea border known as the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the Yellow Sea.